一种飞机电子系统寿命及可靠性预估方法

鉴于多种多种因素影响,航电设备实际寿命与OEM设计寿命往往有较大差异。基于此,采用D-S算法,针对某航空公司UNIT-IRU系列部分设备真实服役数据,建立了单一因素融合和多因素融合设备寿命预估及可靠度计算方法。考虑样本规模的限制,略去计算量的细微差异,后一方法将基本分配概率的不确定性由20%降低到5%左右,表明多因素方法预估结果准确性和可靠度更高,实用性更强。

An Estimating Method for Airborne Avionics Life and Its Reliability

Accurate estimation of airbome avionics life is the key to determine the optimum maintenance time, is also the access to achieve cost-effectiveness for civil aviation maintenance. Affected by various factors, there are large differences between actual service life of avionics and OEM designed life. Based on these conditions, this paper provides single factor fusion and integration of multi-factors to estimate the life of avionics equipment and calculate reliability for some real service data of UNIT-IRU series avionics obtained from an airline. Both of the two methods are based on the D-S method. Considering the limitation of sample size and omitted nuances of calculation amount, the latter method reduced the uncertainty of basic probability distribution from about 20% to 5%.It also shows that the result of multi-factor D-S method has higher accurateness and reliability for estimating life of avionics equipment, besides, the method has more practicality.