Predicting Earth orientation changes from global forecasts of atmosphere-hydrosphere dynamics |
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Authors: | Henryk Dobslaw Robert Dill |
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Affiliation: | Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum – GFZ, Section 1.3: Earth System Modelling, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany |
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Abstract: | Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) functions obtained from global numerical simulations of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface dynamics are routinely processed by the Earth System Modelling group at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum. EAM functions are available since January 1976 with up to 3?h temporal resolution. Additionally, 6?days-long EAM forecasts are routinely published every day. Based on hindcast experiments with 305 individual predictions distributed over 15?months, we demonstrate that EAM forecasts improve the prediction accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameters at all forecast horizons between 1 and 6?days. At day 6, prediction accuracy improves down to 1.76 mas for the terrestrial pole offset, and 2.6 mas for UT1, which correspond to an accuracy increase of about 41% over predictions published in Bulletin A by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service. |
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Keywords: | Earth rotation excitation Earth orientation prediction Global geophysical fluids |
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