Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of ionospheric TEC disturbances as non-stationary processes |
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Authors: | Abdu Mohammed Seid Tesfahun Berhane Lassi Roininen Melessew Nigussie |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Mathematics, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 79, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia;2. Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, Tähteläntie 62, FI-99600 Sodankylä, Finland;3. Washera Geospace and Radar Science Laboratory, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 79, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia |
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Abstract: | We model regular and irregular variation of ionospheric total electron content as stationary and non-stationary processes, respectively. We apply the method developed to SCINDA GPS data set observed at Bahir Dar, Ethiopia . We use hierarchical Bayesian inversion with Gaussian Markov random process priors, and we model the prior parameters in the hyperprior. We use Matérn priors via stochastic partial differential equations, and use scaled hyperpriors for the hyperparameters. For drawing posterior estimates, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods: Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-within-Gibbs for parameter and hyperparameter estimations, respectively. This allows us to quantify model parameter estimation uncertainties as well. We demonstrate the applicability of the method proposed using a synthetic test case. Finally, we apply the method to real GPS data set, which we decompose to regular and irregular variation components. The result shows that the approach can be used as an accurate ionospheric disturbance characterization technique that quantifies the total electron content variability with corresponding error uncertainties. |
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Keywords: | Ionosphere TEC Hierarchical inversion MCMC Gaussian process Non-stationary process |
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