复杂产品系统的风险管理实现研究

提出了一套跨研制单位持续项目风险管理机制.在其风险因素识别阶段.提出了以核对表和鱼刺图为基础的基于特征一因子法的风险因素识别法;在风险量化阶段,提出了先基于模糊综合评判进行单个风险量化、后基于改进PERT方法进行风险整体量化的实现方法:在风险应对阶段,提出了基于人工神经网络和框架知识表示及推理相结合的风险应对方法,建立了混合型专家系统.以实现风险应对智能化.最后,以具体实例说明了该项技术的可行性.

Implementation on Risk Management of Complex Product System

A durative project risk manage-ment mechanism of inter-organizational collaboration is presented.At the period of risk factors' identification,an identification method based on characteristic-factor modeling technology,checklist and flow chart is put for-ward.In the period of risk quantificational management,a sort of realization method is described as following,at first,the single risk quantification can be handled by the comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method;secondly,the whole risk quantification can be h...