我国空间站工程量化风险评价工作探讨

为适应我国载人航天任务的新特点,有效支持空间站量化风险评价工作,调研了美国国家航空航天局（NASA）载人登月、国际空间站、航天飞机等载人航天项目的概率风险评价（PRA）工作,对比分析了PRA方法在不同载人航天项目中的应用效果。在此基础上,针对我国空间站工程的特点,初步提出了基于PRA的空间站工程量化风险评价方案与工作思路,对该方法在我国空间站实施所存在的问题进行了分析,并在方法规范、数据收集等方面提出了工作建议,为我国空间站量化风险评估工作提供技术支持。

Discussion on Quantification Risk Assessment of Chinese Manned Space Station

To adapt to the new characteristics of manned space missions in China and to effectively support the quantitative risk assessment for the Chinese space station , the Probabilistic Risk Assess-ment （ PRA） work of National Aeronautics and Space Administration （ NASA ） was surveyed and PRA application demonstration in different types of manned space programs , such as the CEV , ISS and Space Shuttle were studied .Application results of PRA in those programs were analyzed .Then based on the characteristics of Chinese manned space station , the scheme and considerations of the PRA-based space station quantification risk assessment was put forward , and the existing problems of technology application were analyzed .In the end, some suggestions on the methods , norms and data sampling were also proposed which may provide technical support for space station quantification risk assessment work in China .