太阳质子事件中短期预报模型研究

太阳质子事件通量的预测对航天器抗辐射加固设计和航天员出舱活动具有非常重要的意义.针对一年以下的航天任务，利用经验统计方法，确认太阳活跃年和太阳平静年期间，1——365天不同时间段内 > 10MeV，> 30MeV和 > 60MeV的太阳质子事件积分通量符合对数正态分布，且通量对数的标准偏差σ和期望值μ随任务期时间的变化满足对数函数形式.以此为基础，构建太阳质子通量的中短期预报模型.该模型能够针对太阳活跃年和太阳平静年，给出一定置信度下1——365天不同时间内 > 10MeV，> 30MeV和 > 60MeV的质子事件通量分布，从而为执行中短期航天任务提供太阳质子事件通量的预测，以规避不必要的风险.

Study on the Short to Medium Term Forecast Model of Solar Proton Event

Solar proton event forecast is very important to guarantee the security of spacecrafts and astronauts. According to the short to medium term space mission, the solar proton fluences whose energy are greater than 10MeV, 30MeV and 60MeV are statistically analyzed. It is found that the probability of solar proton fluences has a normal distribution, and their standard deviations and expectations are logarithmic functions over different time period from Day 1 to 365. Consequently, a short to medium term forecast model of solar proton fluences is built, which can forecast the solar proton fluences whose energy are greater than 10MeV, 30MeV and 60MeV with certain confidence levels for different time period. Therefore, this model is very helpful to safely carry out the space mission which task period is less than 1 year.