中国出口贸易多样性的度量及政策建议

首先对出口贸易多样性的度量方法进行了梳理和评述,同时利用BACI在1996~2010年间的贸易细分数据,从出口产品多样性和出口地区多样性的角度度量了中国出口贸易多样性及其变化趋势。实证测度结果表明：虽然中国出口产品种类有略微减少的趋势,但中国出口产品多样性水平却在不断提高;中国出口贸易伙伴的数量仍然在增加,但中国出口地区多样性在2000年以后呈现＂U型＂的变化趋势,且自2008年开始中国出口地区依赖的风险在上升。因此,进一步提升中国出口产品多样性和中国出口地区多样性,是未来中国深化对外经济开放的一个重要政策取向。

Measurement of the Diversity of China's Export Trade and Policy Recommendations

We attempt to make some useful exploration from the perspective of export trade diversity. Firstly, this paper sorts and makes comments on some measurements of the diversity of the export trade. Taking ad- vantage of highly disaggregated data of BACI, this paper measures China＇s diversity of export products and re- gional export diversity during 1996 and 2010, as well as the export trade diversity trends. Empirical results show that although China＇s export product categories are slightly decreasing, but the diversity of export prod- ucts has been improving; Meanwhile, the number of China＇s export trade partners is still in expansion, but re- gional diversity after 2000 forms a ＂U＂ trend, and since the beginning of 2008, China＇s exports risk is on the rise because of being too dependent on limited partners. Therefore, to further enhance the diversity of export products and of export patterns points the direction of China＇a foreign policy in deepening of economic open- ing.