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中国出口贸易多样性的度量及政策建议
引用本文:肖光恩,金圣华.中国出口贸易多样性的度量及政策建议[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报(管理科学版),2014,32(6):31-38.
作者姓名:肖光恩  金圣华
作者单位:武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉,430072
基金项目:国家社科基金重大攻关项目,武汉大学哲学社会科学优势和特色学术领域建设计划项目“后危机时代世界经济格局变动对中国的机遇和挑战”,中国博士后基金项目
摘    要:首先对出口贸易多样性的度量方法进行了梳理和评述,同时利用BACI在1996~2010年间的贸易细分数据,从出口产品多样性和出口地区多样性的角度度量了中国出口贸易多样性及其变化趋势。实证测度结果表明:虽然中国出口产品种类有略微减少的趋势,但中国出口产品多样性水平却在不断提高;中国出口贸易伙伴的数量仍然在增加,但中国出口地区多样性在2000年以后呈现"U型"的变化趋势,且自2008年开始中国出口地区依赖的风险在上升。因此,进一步提升中国出口产品多样性和中国出口地区多样性,是未来中国深化对外经济开放的一个重要政策取向。

关 键 词:出口贸易  产品多样性  地区多样性  赫芬达尔指数  中国

Measurement of the Diversity of China's Export Trade and Policy Recommendations
XIAO Guang-en,JIN Sheng-hua.Measurement of the Diversity of China's Export Trade and Policy Recommendations[J].Journal of Zhengzhou Institute of Aeronautical Industry Management,2014,32(6):31-38.
Authors:XIAO Guang-en  JIN Sheng-hua
Institution:XIAO Guang - en, JIN Sheng - hua (Economies and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072 , China )
Abstract:We attempt to make some useful exploration from the perspective of export trade diversity. Firstly, this paper sorts and makes comments on some measurements of the diversity of the export trade. Taking ad- vantage of highly disaggregated data of BACI, this paper measures China's diversity of export products and re- gional export diversity during 1996 and 2010, as well as the export trade diversity trends. Empirical results show that although China's export product categories are slightly decreasing, but the diversity of export prod- ucts has been improving; Meanwhile, the number of China's export trade partners is still in expansion, but re- gional diversity after 2000 forms a "U" trend, and since the beginning of 2008, China's exports risk is on the rise because of being too dependent on limited partners. Therefore, to further enhance the diversity of export products and of export patterns points the direction of China'a foreign policy in deepening of economic open- ing.
Keywords:export trade  diversity of products  regional diversity  herfindahl index  China
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