| 航材消耗的时间序列分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 左召军,钟新辉.航材消耗的时间序列分析[J].长沙航空职业技术学院学报,2004,4(3):29-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 左召军 钟新辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 空军后勤学院,江苏,徐州,221000;空军工程大学工程学院,陕西,西安,710038 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用时间序列分析法对某种航材故障率进行预测,用移动平均法消除时间序列的长期趋势和周期变动,然后按月平均法求出季节指数,并对季节指数进行调整,然后根据拟合的趋势方程对此种航材的故障率进行预测.其结果能为航材的可靠性保障提供理论依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 消耗率 季节指数 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-9654(2004)03-029-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年5月8日 |
Forecasting for Aero-Materials' Consumption Rate Based on Time Series Analysis |
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| ZUO Zhao-jun ,ZHONG Xin-hui.Forecasting for Aero-Materials' Consumption Rate Based on Time Series Analysis[J].JOurnal of Changsha Aeronautical Vocational and Technical College,2004,4(3):29-32. |
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| Authors: | ZUO Zhao-jun ZHONG Xin-hui |
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| Institution: | ZUO Zhao-jun 1,ZHONG Xin-hui 2 |
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| Abstract: | This paper develops the method of time series analysis to forecast the consumption rate of the aero-material. It dissolves the influences of long-term trend and period alteration by means of move-average method, then calculates the season exponent and adjusts it. The forecast can be done by trend equation that is set up according to the raw data. It's applicable and useful for the materials' reliability and application. |
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| Keywords: | time series consumption rate season exponent forecasting |
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