亚洲10大枢纽机场运营绩效预测研究

提高机场未来运营绩效是可持续发展的关键，对其进行准确预测是改善机场运营绩效的基础。考虑到突发事件的影响，单纯定量预测存在预测失真问题，本文采用定性定量结合分析法预测亚洲 10 大枢纽机场“十四五”期间的运营绩效，对比灰色模型定量分析法和 ARIMA 模型的预测结果，并对机场运营绩效预测结果进行分析。结果表明：灰色模型定量分析法比 ARIMA 模型更适合预测机场运营绩效；与实际统计值相比，灰色模型预测的误差都小于 4%，预测精度较好；采用定性定量结合分析法得到了机场未来运营绩效预测的结果，比单纯定量预测更符合实际情况。

Study on airport performance forecast-A case of 10 Asian hub airports

Improving future performance is the key to airport sustainable development. Accurate forecast is the basis for improving performance. Considering the impact of COVID-19, a combination method with quantitative and qualitative analysis are used to forecast the performance of 10 Asian hub airports during 14th 5-Year, and puts forward strategic suggestions for airport sustainable development. It is found that grey model quantitative analysis method is more suitable to forecast airport performance than ARIMA; Comparing the predicted values of the eight airports with the actual statistical values from 2016 to 2019 (Pudong and Bao''an airports from 2017 to 2020), it is found that all the forecast errors are less than 4%, and the forecast results are good; Baiyun Airport passenger throughput will continue to maintain the first in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao bay area; In 2025, Incheon Airport will become the first Asian passenger transport hub for the first time; Hong Kong Airport will maintain the first Asian cargo throughput; Incheon Airport will become the first financial performance Asian airport; In 2024, Baiyun Airport will become the first financial performance airport in mainland China. It is suggested that mainland Chinese airports should attach importance to the innovation of nonaeronautical services, enhance airport financial performance, develop airport economy and promote sustainable development.