| 基于迭加趋势的航线季节客运需求分析方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 景崇毅.基于迭加趋势的航线季节客运需求分析方法[J].中国民航飞行学院学报,2014(2):5-7,11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 景崇毅 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国民航飞行学院航空运输管理学院,四川广汉618307 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（61179074） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对航线季节客运需求的特点,提出了基于迭加趋势的航线季节客运需求分析方法,其基本思想是:根据航线季节客运量历史数据,构建航线季节客运量趋势变动模型,通过OLS方法估计直线趋势方程参数,进一步考虑季节变化对客运需求的影响,建立航线季节客运需求分析模型。仿真结果表明该方法可行且结果具有较高的精度,可作为分析航线季节客运需求的有效工具。
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| 关 键 词： | 季节客运量 迭加趋势 需求分析 |
An Analyzing Method of Airlines＇ Seasonal Passenger Transport Demand Based on Superimposing Trend |
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| Jing Chongyi.An Analyzing Method of Airlines＇ Seasonal Passenger Transport Demand Based on Superimposing Trend[J].Journal of China Civil Aviation Flying College,2014(2):5-7,11. |
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| Authors: | Jing Chongyi |
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| Institution: | Jing Chongyi (Aviation Transportation Management School, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan, 618307, Sichuan, China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the characteristics of airlines＇ seasonal passenger transport demand, this paper proposes an analyzing method based on superimposing trend, of which the main philosophy is： firstly, construct a model of airlines＇ seasonal passenger transport capacity fluctuation trend by analyzing airlines＇ seasonal passenger transport capacity historical data; then estimate the equation parameters of rectilinear trend through OLS Methods; next, consider in-depth and investigate the impacts of seasonal change on passenger transport demand; finally, construct the analyzing model Of airlines＇ seasonal passenger transport demand. The simulation result has indicated that this method is feasible, highly accurate, and can be adopted as an effective tool for predicting airlines＇ seasonal passenger transport demand. |
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| Keywords: | Seasonal passenger transport demand Superimposing trend Demand analysis |
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