机组原因导致事故征候的预测研究

在1995—2004年统计数据的基础上,应用二次指数平滑和灰色预测方法分别对2002—2004年的事故征候数进行预测,并对两种预测结果与实际值进行比较和分析,表明二次指数平滑方法预测效果较好。应用二次指数平滑方法对未来5年的事故征候数进行预测。预测结果表明,以机组为原因导致的事故征候数呈上升趋势。结合民航的现实情况分析了出现这种趋势的原因,提出了控制这种趋势的管理对策。

Study on Forecast of Incidents Resulting from Crew

Based on the current statistical data in 1995-2004,the paper applies the secondary exponential smoothing method and the grey prediction to the prediction of the incidents resulting from the crew in 2002-2004 respectively and compares and analyzes the results of the two predictions with the real value.It is found that the secondary exponential smoothing method is much better in forecasting.This method is used to forecast the incidents in the next five years.The forecast results show that the trend of the incidents resulting from the crew is ascending.Taking into consideration the current circumstances in the civil aviation,the paper analyzes the cause of the trend and puts forward ways to control the trend.