卫星在空间碎片撞击下的易损性分析方法研究

针对厘米/毫米级空间碎片对卫星的撞击风险评估，在对卫星部件的失效模式及影响分析（FMEA）的基础上，结合射线跟踪法和失效树分析法建立一种卫星目标的易损性分析方法，计算卫星在空间碎片撞击下导致不同损伤等级的系统失效概率PK/H。详细介绍了该易损性分析方法的总体思路和各项关键技术，并给出了应用实例。该方法可推广应用于载人航天器上，对于航天器的撞击风险评估和防护结构优化设计有重要意义。

Research on vulnerability analysis method for satellite impacted by space debris

For the sake of risk assessments of centimeter/millimeter-level space debris impac-ting satellites,a vulnerability analysis method has been developed to estimate the system failure probability PK/H of satellite with different damage degree.The proposed method is constructed on the basis of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA ）,combined with Shot-line method and failure tree method.In this paper,the main idea and each key technique of this vulnerability anal-ysis method in detail were introduced and an application example was presented in the end.This method can be applied for manned space missions also,which is significant for risk assessments of aircrafts and shielding structure design optimization.