于不确定性与重要度的改进DSmT健康状态评估

针对目前健康状态评估准确度不高、客观性不强的问题,引入评估指标的不确定性和重要度,提出一种基于不确定性和重要度的改进DSmT（Dezert Smarandache theory）健康状态评估方法.首先,引入指标不确定性和重要度作为加权因子,能够得到比较合理的指标权重；其次,采用模糊综合评判方法,通过构造三角形梯形隶属度函数确定各指标的广义基本信度赋值；然后,基于指标权重对广义基本信度赋值进行改进DSmT融合,得到各指标的广义基本信度赋值加权融合后的评估结果；最后,以某供电系统为例进行了实例验证,结果表明该方法能够赋予各评估指标较合理的权重,健康状态评估结果与系统实际运行状态相符. 

Health status assessment based on uncertainty and importance degree improved DSmT

Considering the health status assessment problem of lower accuracy and objectivity, the index uncertainty and importance degree was introduced, and then a method of health status assessment based on uncertainty and importance degree improved DSmT （Dezert Smarandache theory） was proposed. Firstly, the uncertainty and importance degree was employed to determine the reasonable weight of index. Then the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was used to determine the basic belief assignment of each index by building triangle trapezoidal membership function, and then the basic belief assignment was combined to get the assessment results using the weight DSmT fusion rule based on the index weight. Finally, the method was used to evaluate a power supply system. The results indicate that the proposed method can assign reasonable weight to the index, and the health status assessment result is consistent with the actual state.