Bayesian framework for assessing the value of scientific space systems: Value of information approach with application to earth science spacecraft

Space systems play an important role in today's society by generating or transmitting information from source to sink(s). The acquisition of the space system is often justified by the type, quantity and quality of information provided or transmitted. This work posits that the value of a class of space systems derives from and can be assessed through the value of information these systems provide. To this effect, a Bayesian framework is developed to assess system value in which systems are viewed as information sources, and stakeholders as information recipients. Information has value to stakeholders as it helps to update their beliefs, enabling them to make decisions that can yield higher expected pay-offs than in the absence of information. This increase in expected pay-offs is ascribed to the value of the system. Based on this idea, a new metric, Value-of-Design (VOD), is introduced to quantify the value of a class of space systems with unpriced services. The Bayesian framework assesses the Value-of-Design for the space system by considering the impact of the information transmitted on the actions taken by stakeholders, and estimating the resulting pay-offs from these actions. The framework here developed is then applied to the case of an Earth Science satellite that provides hurricane information to oil rig operators in the Gulf of Mexico. Probability models of stakeholders’ beliefs, and economic models of pay-offs are developed and integrated with a spacecraft design tool. Results from the application point to clusters of payload instruments that yielded higher information value, and minimum information thresholds below which it is difficult to justify the acquisition of the system. Additionally, the system is analyzed in Cost-VOD trade space to provide program managers with additional insights into the coupling of a system's predicted value generation and its associated lifecycle cost.