随机追踪策略预测钟差的理论分析

稳健流逝性是时间区别于其它物理量的重要特征，决定了时间计量的滞后性。为了保障未来时刻的准确性，时间信号的预测及控制尤为关键。从理论视角分析了随机追踪策略的基本原理、预测不确定度以及关键参数优化等问题，明确了随机追踪预测钟差的运行机理，并进一步阐述了该方法的适用性，同时提出两点进一步改进的研究思路。

Theoretical Analysis on Predicting Clock Difference Using Random Pursuit Strategy

Time always stable elapses forward,which is different from other physical quantities.It determines that only the past time can be accurately measured and evaluated.In order to ensure the accuracy of output signal of time scale at next time,the prediction and control of atomic clock signals is indispensable.This paper analyzed theoretically the running principle,uncertainty evaluation,key parameters’ optimization and other problems of random pursuit strategy to clarify its operational mechanism for predicting clock difference.In addition,we attempted to discuss on the applicability and proposed two new ideas of further study about random pursuit strategy.