一种小样本和小失效数系统可靠性分析方法

根据小样本和小失效数系统的特点，以及可靠性分布函数和参数估计的不确定性和模糊性，提出了一种可靠性分析方法。采用指数分布族，通过分析最少和最大失效数两种最极端状态，确定中间状态的备选点，运用最小平方差原理进行逐个筛选，并给出了算法流程。分析结果表明，计算值与实际观测值较为吻合。该方法可使系统可靠性的估计精度有较大提高。

Reliability Analysis Method for System with Small Sample and Small Invalidate Numbers

According to the characteristics of the system with small sample and small invalidate numbers, the uncertainty and ambiguity of the reliability distributing functions and distributing parameters, a method to estimate the reliability was put forward in this paper. The optional points between the maximum and minimum invalidate numbers were selected. The screening was made one by one using the least square error principle. The flow chart was also given. The result was showed that the computation was agreed with the test data well. The method could boost the estimation accuracy of reliability greatly.