机动弹道对抗导弹防御系统的效能分析

为了研究机动弹道对抗导弹防御系统的突防效能,梳理了弹道导弹防御系统的组成与作战流程,通过剖析系统的信息流向与处理过程,提炼出机动弹道突防导弹防御系统的机理,即采用机动弹道可使导弹预警信息处理能力下降,从而破坏、瘫痪导弹防御系统,实现导弹的有效突防.通过仿真滑翔机动弹道和椭圆弹道,并对计算的跟踪弧段、弹道估计和预报误差进行比较,结果表明：采用机动弹道,观测弧段压缩44％,弹道估计误差增大数倍,有效预报时间大大缩短.因此,采用机动弹道是导弹突防的一种有效手段.

Effectiveness of Maneuvering Trajectory against Missile Defense Systems

The composition and operational process of Ballistic Missile Defense Systems （BMDS） are analyzed to study the penetration effectiveness of maneuvering trajectory against BMDS systems. The mechanism of BMDS penetration by using maneuvering trajectory is refined following investigation into the information flow and processing of BMDS systems. The use of maneuvering trajectory could bring down the information processing performance and paralyzes the operational capability of BMDS systems so as to realize effective penetration. As shown by simulation of gliding maneuvering trajectory and elliptical trajectory and comparison of the observation arc, trajectory estimation and prediction errors, the use of maneuvering trajectory compresses 44% of observation arc, increases trajectory estimation errors by several times, and significantly shortens effective prediction time. Therefore, the use of maneuvering trajectory is an effective means of missile penetration.