动态火力接入下要地防空作战目标威胁评估

以动态火力接入下海军要地防空作战为背景，综合考虑要地相对价值和目标攻击能力、攻击意图以及到达时间，构建空袭目标威胁评估模型。首先，阐述了动态火力接入下要地防空作战系统及其动态接入与退出策略；然后，结合要地相对价值和空袭目标数量以及毁伤能力构建了空中目标威胁能力量化模型；其次，基于目标相对要地的航路角构建了目标攻击意图量化模型，并根据目标运动特性分别给出到达要地时间的计算方法；最后，根据目标距离防空体系拦截区的关系进行威胁等级排序，并提出威胁度计算方法，据此给出目标威胁等级排序。仿真结果表明，本文方法符合实际作战中的一般战术推理，能够客观地给出空袭目标威胁等级排序，可为要地防空作战决策研究提供一定的参考。 

Threat evaluation of air-targets for key positions air-defense under dynamic fire access

Under the background of naval key position air-defense combat, air-targets threat evaluation model is established based on key positions relative value, target attack capability, target attack intent and targetarrival time. Firstly, the key positions air-defense combat system under dynamic access is introduced, and the dynamic access and quit strategy are presented. Secondly, the key positions relative value, air-target number and target killing probabilities are used to quantize the air-target threat capability. Then, air-target attack quantization model is proposed with the target-to-key positions course angle, and the time that targets arrived at key positions is calculated based on different target types. Finally, the threat level order is carried out by comparing the distance between the targets and air-defense system intercept area, and the air-target threat value is obtained. The simulation results show that the quantized method conforms with the ordinary tactics reasoning, and it can develop the air-target threat order results objectively. This paper can provide a decision reference for the key positions defense operation.