基于故障行为模型的产品寿命分析方法

针对传统可靠性工程方法无法满足高可靠长寿命需求产品设计与分析要求的现状。本文充分考虑引起产品寿命分散性的内因和外因的不确定性，在产品功能模型或数字样机模型的基础上，结合产品的故障行为模型，建立了一种基于产品故障行为模型的产品寿命分析方法。在该方法中，内因参数与外因参数的分散性分别可以用相应的概率密度函数来表示，都是通过对实际使用情况和生产条件的估计得到的，因此，按照这种方法评估得到的产品寿命特征，能够弥补基于故障物理的可靠性预计方法无法体现产品正常使用条件的不足。 

Life analysis method for products based on failure behavior models

With the situation that traditional reliability engineering methods cannot meet the demand of design and analysis for the products with high reliability and long life index, this paper considers the uncertainty of inner and outside factors which cause the life dispersion, and on the basis of product functional models or digital prototype models, with the failure behavior model of products, a method is proposed to conduct the life analysis for products with long life index. The dispersion of inner and outside parameters can be expressed by the probability density function and obtained by analyzing the actual use and production conditions. Thus the life characteristics of products obtained with this method can remedy the disadvantage that the reliability prediction method based on physics of failure cannot reflect the actual normal use conditions of the products.