未来航空新兴技术概念内涵及识别方法

针对目前各种航空新兴技术识别方法纷繁复杂、层出不穷的现状,文中系统分析了以专家知识经验见长的定性识别方法,以科技期刊文献计量为主的客观定量识别方法,结合定性和定量多种方法组合识别的方法同时进行了对比分析,给出了各种方法的优点和缺点。系统梳理了兰德公司、DARPA,战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)、中国航空研究院(CAE)等国内外一些情报研究机构经常采用的资源组成、识别流程、识别方法、识别成果。最后提出了关于新兴航空技术识别方法的思考,期望对相关新兴技术研究起到一定的参考作用。

Conceptual Connotation and Identification ethods of EmergingTechnologies for Future Aviation

In view of the complicated and endless situation of various identification methods foremerging aviation technologies , the qualitative identification method of expert knowledge and experi.ence ,scientific and technological journal biometric objective quantitative identification method andthe combination of qualitative and quantitative methods are systematically analyzed comparative anal-ysis was performed , and the advantages and disadvantages of various methods were provided. The resource composition , identification process , identification methods and identification results often usedby some domestic and foreign intelligence research institutions such as Rand Company , DARPACenter for Strategic and International Studies(CSIS)and Chinese Aeronautical Establishment(CAE) are systematically reviewed. Finally ,the thinking of identification method of emerging avia-tion technologies was presented with hoping to play a certain reference role in the research of relatedemerging technologies.