攻击移动目标的末制导导弹命中概率评估方法

针对攻击移动目标的末制导导弹的命中概率评估问题，深入分析了影响导弹精度的各类误差源，研究了目标机动特性对末制导雷达捕获概率的影响，提出了打击任意形状目标的命中概率计算模型。以慢速移动目标——舰船为例进行了仿真分析，结果表明提出的命中概率评估方法能够有效融合多源信息，评估结论符合工程实际。

An Assessment Method for Hit Probability of the Terminal Guidance Missile Attacking the Slow Movable Target

For the problem of hit probability assessment for the terminal guidance missile attacking the slow movable target, all the error sources affecting the hit accuracy of missile are lucubrated. Then the paper analyzes how the maneuverable characteristics of a target affects the capture probability of the terminal guidance radar. A calculating model is put forward, which can be used to calculate the hit probability of an arbitrary target. The simulation result shows that the assessment method can fuse multi-source information effectively and the conclusion accords with the practice.