中国区域多机场系统旅客吞吐量预测方法研究

随着航空运输业的发展，区域单一枢纽格局被打破，区域性枢纽和次枢纽逐渐形成，进而产生区域多机场系统。对影响旅客在区域多机场系统中选择机场时的主要因素进行了分析，并以上海、杭州为中心的区域多机场系统为例，根据旅客选择机场的偏好，确定了三方面主要影响因素——机场的航班状况、航空运输票价水平和机场服务质量，运用多项式logit（MNL）模型对区域多机场系统中各机场分担率，以及相应旅客吞吐量的预测方法进行了研究，为未来机场预测体系的建立提供了定量分析的方法和思路。

Method of Passenger Throughput Forecasting in Multi-Airports System

With the development of air transportation, the regional hub and sub-hub are coming into being, which is gradually forming the multi-airport system in one regional area. By analyzing the key factors of influencing passengers＇ choice in multi-airports, this thesis, taken the region of Shanghai and Hang Zhou as an example, defined three main factors according to the passengers＇ preference when they choose an airport in an multi-airports region： status of the flight, air fare and service quality. The MNL the meaing of the abb model is applied to study the method of passenger throughput share and forecast in this multi-airports region. This study can offer a quantitative analysis method for establishing an airport forecasting system in the future.