Collision probabilities in geosynchronous orbit and techniques to control the environment |
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| Institution: | 1. Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200030;2. Beijing Satellite Navigation Center, Beijing 100092;3. National Defenses University, Beijing 100091;1. College of Science, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China;2. National Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Aerospace Flight Dynamics, Beijing Aerospace Control Center, Beijing 100094, China;3. MOE Key Laboratory of TianQin Mission, TianQin Research Center for Gravitational Physics, Frontiers Science Center for TianQin, CNSA Research Center for Gravitational Waves, Sun Yat-sen University (Zhuhai Campus), Zhuhai 519082, China;4. School of Artificial Intelligence, Sun Yat-sen University (Zhuhai Campus), Zhuhai 519082, China;5. School of Physics and Astronomy, Sun Yat-sen University (Zhuhai Campus), Zhuhai 519082, China;6. Information Engineering University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;1. European Space Agency, Camino Bajo del Castillo s/n, 28692 Villanueva de la Cañada, Spain;2. Rhea, Camino Bajo del Castillo s/n, 28692 Villanueva de la Cañada, Spain;3. GMV, Isaac Newton, 11. P.T.M. 28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid, Spain;4. European Space Agency, 18 Av. Edouard Belin, 31400 Toulouse, France;1. State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth''s Dynamics, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 340 Xudong Road, Wuhan 430077, China;2. National Geodetic Observatory. Wuhan, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 340 Xudong Road, Wuhan 430077, China;3. College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 19A Yuquan Road, Beijing 100049, China;4. Hubei Luojia Laboratory, No. 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper addresses the physical crowding problem of geosynchronous satellites by summarizing two independent analyses. The first analysis included developing a new technique for predicting the expected time between collisions of active geosynchronous satellites with expired geosynchronous satellites. The unique feature of this new technique is that deterministic methods are used to model the motion of satellites and statistical techniques are employed to estimate collision probability. This allows realistic distributions of active and expired satellites to be used in the prediction process. The results of this new technique compare very closely to the results of previously used techniques. The second analysis addresses disposal options for spent upper stages (PAM-D, IUS, etc.) that are currently left in stable elliptical orbits. These spent upper stages are a hazard to the geosynchronous region as well as low earth orbits. Two propulsive techniques are presented that will reduce the orbit lifetime of the spent upper stages. |
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