Spring-ozone change in Antarctica and the role of the polar vortex

Observations since the late 1970's have shown that from late September until the end of November (austral spring) the total ozone over the southern polar region has declined by up to 30% when compared with the ozone average of the 1957–1978 period. The decline is not uniform in time and space; from January through August, the ozone changes are very small, well within the year-to-year fluctuation limits. Satellite observations confirm that the significant ozone decline is centered over and does not expand outside of the Antarctic continent, e.g. it coincides with the location of the Antarctic stratospheric winter vortex; moreover, the decline increases poleward. Analysis of the stratospheric temperatures and geopotential heights confirms that the spring-to-spring ozone changes closely follow the changes of the thermobaric field, and that the rapid increase of ozone (and stratospheric temperature) in the spring is dependent on the time of the polar vortex breakdown, when favorable conditions for continuous meridional exchange of ozone-rich air from the middle latitudes are re-established. The stratospheric heating rates and the weak gradient in the vortex central region during early spring provide favorable conditions for weak upward motions, responsible for a substantial part of the ozone loss between the date of the solar penetration of the stratosphere, and the date of the vortex breakdown. Since the late 1970's, the breakdown of the Antarctic vortex has occured about mid-November, a month later than in years of early breakdown. It is suggested that an early breakdwon of the Antarctic vortex would interrupt the trend of declining spring ozone established over the past few years.