Global energy issues affecting aeronautics: a reasoned conjecture

This paper is a reasoned conjecture of the future up to 2050 AD including estimates of energy supply and consumption, transport system developments and corresponding pollution effects. Results of the logistic substitution methods (Volterra–Lotka) are used in forecasting trends in innovation, transport and energy. Later work on normative forecasts is also included. The future of aeronautics cannot be isolated from events in other transport modes which together create the major problem of crude oil replacement during the next century. Natural gas will be the dominant energy source for the next 80 years and a major question is how best to use it for aviation.The work on which this paper is based was started in 1992 to answer the following questions:

• 1. Is the future oil shortfall sufficient to restrict aviation traffic and growth in the next 50 years?
• 2. If so, what is its substitute?
• 3. Can a substitute be obtained cheaply enough to free aviation from future kerosine shortages?
• 4. Is it paramount to change to liquid hydrogen fuel to avoid future fuel shortage in aeronautics, incidentally conferring possible environmental advantages?

There was no adequate evidence available to answer these questions, hence a method was devised to bring together several sets of partial data that contributed to the solution. The essence is to use the mean annual growth rate of traffic or energy over a future period as a pseudo-independent variable. This allows the inclusion of alternative high and low estimates of all the important quantities involved.