一对一遭遇时飞机生存力-探测时间解析模型

 考虑探测事件的发生时间对开火、击中以及杀伤事件的影响，分析飞机与威胁的一对一遭遇情形，推导出飞机遭遇打击的次数的概率分布以及特定打击次数下飞机的生存概率，最后得到了一对一遭遇飞机生存力 探测时间的解析求解公式。该解析模型精确考虑了威胁与飞机遭遇的全过程，包括：探测，跟踪、开火以及重新装弹、开火等。根据该模型，不仅可以计算一对一遭遇飞机生存概率，而且可以方便地绘制生存力随平均发现时间、一次打击杀伤概率等参数变化的曲线。算例和分析结果表明该模型计算简便、合理有效。

Analytic Model of Aircraft Survivability-detection Time for One-on-one Engagement

Considering that the time taken to detect an aircraft will affect the subsequent events such as launch,hit,and kill,a one-on-one engagement between aircraft and threat is first analyzed.Then,the probability distribution of the number of shots on an aircraft is obtained and the conditional probability that the aircraft survives with certain number of shots is proposed.Finally,an analytic formula for calculating the aircraft survival probability is derived.This analytic model explicitly represents the whole encounter process between aircraft and threat,such as target detection,acquisition and firing,and reload and firing.This model not only makes it possible to calculate the aircraft survival probability,but also plots the survivability contour maps with ease,which vary with the mean time of detection,single shot kill probability and other parameters.Numerical examples and analysis of the results show that the model is reasonable and effective.