分离模块航天器综合评估方法研究

以分离模块航天器概念设计阶段的方案评估分析为目标，提出一种基于数学建模和蒙特卡洛模拟的定量化评估分析方法框架。首先，定义了分离模块航天器生命周期状态及其转移过程，建立了状态转移概率矩阵，将生命周期不确定风险因素在状态转移过程中加以考虑；进而，基于系统状态模型建立了分离模块航天器生命周期成本和净收益计算模型；然后，以生命周期成本和净收益的均值和标准差作为评价指标，提出了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的综合评估仿真分析方法；最后，采用典型设计案例进行了分析与验证。

Research on the Comprehensive Assessment Method for Fractionated Spacecrafts

An assessment method based on mathematical model and Monte Carlo simulation is proposed for quantitively analyzing conceptual design candidates of fractionated spacecrafts. Firstly, lifecycle state and state transition process of a fractionated spacecraft are defined, and considering lifecycle uncertainty risks, the state transition probability matrix is constructed. Then, the estimation models of lifecycle cost and net profit are formulated based on the system state model of the fractionated spacecraft. Further, taking both mean and standard deviation of lifecycle cost and net profit are defined as the assessment metrics. A comprehensive assessment approach based on Monte Carlo simulations is presented. Finally, a case study is carried out by use of the proposed method for illustration and validation.