飞行器多学科不确定性设计理论概述

设计是充分利用设计知识做出智能决策得到最优解的过程，在基于建模与仿真的飞行器设计过程中，由于客观存在的不确定性，产生基于模型预估结果与真实结果的不一致。飞行器传统设计采用基于串行的确定性设计方法，无法得到性能、可支付性、可靠性、鲁棒性等综合平衡的设计。本文旨在建立飞行器多学科不确定性设计理论，介绍解决飞行器多学科不确定性设计相关计算、组织和不确定性科学处理复杂性问题的方法和基本思想。

Survey on the theory of aircraft multidisciplinary uncertainty design

Design concerns using available information to make intelligent decisions leading to optimal solutions,in the process of aircraft design based modeling and simulation,there exists a vast amount of uncertainty,which causes model-based predictions to differ from reality.Aircraft traditional design method is certain and serial,the balanced design considering performance,affordable,reliability and robust can not gain easily.This paper aims to set up the aircraft multidisciplinary uncertainty design theory.The methods and fundamental ideas how to solve the calculation,organization and uncertainty science disposal complexity about aircraft multidisciplinary uncertainty deign are briefly introduced in this paper.