多机理下的卫星寿命预测方法与应用

针对卫星寿命预测的需求和以往方法未考虑突发故障及退化失效的不足，提出了综合多种机理进行寿命预测的方法。归纳了星上产品的寿命特征和卫星到寿原因，指出了卫星随机失效的分布特征；针对随机失效,建立随单星工作时间和系统结构变化的剩余寿命预测模型，给出了利用动态的在轨工作状态数据求解多阶段分布参数的算法，从而实现剩余寿命的动态分析；综合随机失效、退化、消耗及其在轨变化规律，提出了适用于多机理的、竞争性的寿命预测方法。案例分析表明，综合考虑突发故障、退化失效和消耗,可以得到更合理的寿命预测结果,在星座维持策略中提高备份星计划的可信性。

Satellitelife prediction method anditsapplication by multiple mechanisms

Based on the realistic requirement of satellite life prediction and the deficienciesin previous methods,anewlifeprediction methodconsidering multiple mechanisms wasproposed．The life characteristics of satellite products and the causes for the end of satellite life were analyzed. Considering random failure, a life prediction model updated with satellite operating timeand system components was proposed, and the method solving multi-stage distribution parameters wasgiven． Based on this, the random failure, degradationand exhaustion were considered synthetically, and a new life prediction method was built. A case study shows that the new method can be used to get the more depend able results, which are very important for the constellation maintenance strategy．