| Abstract: | Consideration is being given to use the known long and short forecasts of development of rocket engines in past - at the beginning of development of a missile engineering (K. Tsiolkovsky etc. pioneers of rocket propulsion); on the eve of launching of the artificial satellite of Earth (A. Blagonravov); after manned flight of Yu. Gagarin (V. Gluchko); after manned flight on Moon (“ The Forecasts on 2001 ” on materials of readings R. Goddard in USA); in middle of 70-s' years (D. Sevruk, V. Prisniakov) and at the end of 20 centure. Last years under the initiative R. Beichel and M. Pouliquen IAA. Advanced Propulsion Working Group carries out large researches on definition of the tendencies of development of rocket propulsion for the next forty years, the outcomes which one will be used in the report. The comparison of development of rocket propulsion expected to the end of 20 century and real-life is given. The report analyses the errors of the forecasts of the past - the absence reliable prognostic procedure; the euphoria of the maiden successes of conquest of space; dominance of military and political- propaganda motives of implementation of the space programs before economical; to keep developments secret; competition of two super-powers USSR and USA etc. |
