导弹命中精度整体推断方法

提出一种导弹命中精度小子样评定方法,该方法通过导弹仿真结果与靶场试验数据有机结合,能够将多种不同发射条件下的脱靶量试验数据作为一个整体进行统计推断,给出脱靶量均值、方差和落入概率的整体估计和置信区间估计.与传统方法相比,导弹命中精度整体推断方法具有信息量大,精度高的特点,解决了一种发射条件下只有一个脱靶量试验数据时导弹射击准确度、射击密集度和落入概率评定的难题,可以给出检验点以及整个杀伤区域内的命中概率,为导弹鉴定及其作战效能评估提供科学依据. 

Integral inference method for missile hit accuracy

An integral inference method for missile hit accuracy is presented.Combining the simulation results of missile hit accuracy and the miss distance experiment data,the method can totally infer the miss distance experiment data of missile in various launching conditions.Furthermore,it can establish the mean,the variance and the hit probability estimators,and give their confidence limits and intervals in each launching condition.Compared with traditional methods,this method not only has higher precision,but also solves the problem of missile fire accuracy,dispersion and hit probability assessment with only one miss distance experiment datum in a launching condition.