Mathematical model for assessment of radiation risk on long space missions.

A mathematical model is developed which describes the dynamics of radiation-induced mortality in mammalian populations. It relates statistical biometric functions with statistical characteristics and dynamics of an organism's critical system. In the framework of the model the effects of low and very low dose rates of chronic radiation on mice are simulated. Respectively, thrombocytopoietic and granulocytopoietic systems are considered as the critical ones. To calculate the dynamics of these systems, mathematical models are applied, too. In accordance with experimental data, the mortality model reproduces on quantitative level both increased and decreased mortality rates in populations of LAF1 mice, which were chronically exposed, respectively, to low and very low level radiation. All this makes it feasible to use the model as a basis for risk assessments of low level long-term irradiation.