基于层次分析的武器系统发射阵地风险评估

为降低武器系统发射风险,针对发射阵地上的设施、装备、人员、组织、管理、阵地环境等多方面因素进行综合性风险性评估。提出了发射风险评估与处置的方法,介绍风险的识别与评价。在分析发射阵各类风险的基础上,按层次分析法对存在的风险进行规划分类,并对基层风险进行权重排序,根据比较历史记录估计相应风险发生概率及危险程度值,并进行风险评估计算。

Risk Evaluation of Weapon System Launching Position Based on AHP

In order to reduce the risk of weapon system launching, the risk was evaluated comprehensively by analyzing ev.ery elements including the facilities, equipment, worker, organization, management and environment.The method of launch.ing risk of evaluation and management, and how to recognize and estimate was introduced. Based on analyzing every ele.ments of risk, the risks were classified and the basic risk right was ordered. At last, the corresponding value was evaluatesdby comparing past records and calculates.