基于博弈论的飞行安全风险评价

通过研究飞行机组与空中交通管制员之间的合作问题，以达到对飞行安全风险的分析和评价；结合博弈论的基本思想和方法，应用贝叶斯条件概率定理和NASH策略对飞行机组与管制员之间的合作关系进行定量分析，建立飞行安全风险博弈模型假设；根据Bayesian决策模型和NASH均衡算法，计算出飞行机组与管制员之间的局势均衡点，即飞行安全风险的最小值；通过仿真计算表明，该结果对改善航空公司安全管理的科学性、可靠性和进一步降低事故率以及提高飞行安全水平具有一定的参考价值。

Flight Safety Risk Evaluation Based on Game Theory

Aimed at carrying out analysis and evaluation on flight safety risk, the cooperation degree between the flight crew and ATC controllers was studied. By combined use of the basic concepts of game theory and Bayesian conditional probability and NASH strategy, a quantitative flight crew and ATC controller cooperation relationship analysis was proposed and the flight safety risk game model was built. In order to estimate the decision-making equilibrium point of flight crew and ATC controllers or achieving the minimum risk to flight safety, a flight safety risk game model and Bayesian NASH balanced strategy algorithms were used in the evaluation of cooperation between flight crew and ATC controllers. The simulation calculation results shows that the evaluation has a certain reference value for the airlines to improve the scientific and reliability of safety management, which can further reduce accident rate and enhance flight safety level.