| Abstract: | Like the other great space powers of the 21st century, Europe has its own means of accessing space: Ariane, which has guaranteed its independence in the launching of civil and military satellites for almost 30 years and has won a significant part of the highly competitive commercial market. This market provides the Ariane system with the production volume indispensable for its reliability, which also benefits institutional launches. Europe's commercial market share will be even larger if the launch system is flexible and adaptable to the diversity of demand. Probable future technological changes make flexibility more necessary still. Two technical characteristics will be key: a large enough payload capacity and the injection of satellites into energetic orbits, including final geostationary orbit. But carrying out such missions will only be possible if a new generation upper stage is used. The November 2008 ESA ministerial meeting opted to wait until 2011 to decide whether this is necessary, making it doubtful whether Arianespace will be able to maintain leadership in the commercial market. The authors urge a rethink of this position. |
