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用BP神经网络预报太阳活动第23周的黑子数
引用本文:田剑华. 用BP神经网络预报太阳活动第23周的黑子数[J]. 空间科学学报, 1997, 17(3): 255-260. doi: 10.11728/cjss1997.03.255
作者姓名:田剑华
作者单位:中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心, 北京 100080
摘    要:本文设计、训练和利用BP神经网络,对1750年以来的各太阳活动周上升段和下降段太阳黑子数的变化数据进行了分类和模式识别,得到各太阳活动周上升周期及其上升期间太阳黑子数平滑月均值相当好的模拟结果;在此基础上获得较好的太阳活动第22周上升周期及太阳黑子数的最大平滑月均值预报结果;还作出太阳活动第23周的上升周期及太阳黑子数的最大平滑月均值的预报结果.

关 键 词:BP神经网络   太阳黑子数   日地环境预报
收稿时间:1996-10-23
修稿时间:1997-04-09

APPLICATIONS OF BP NEURAL NETWORKS IN FORECASTING SUNSPOT NUMBERS FOR SOLAR CYCLE 23
TIAN Jianhua. APPLICATIONS OF BP NEURAL NETWORKS IN FORECASTING SUNSPOT NUMBERS FOR SOLAR CYCLE 23[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 1997, 17(3): 255-260. doi: 10.11728/cjss1997.03.255
Authors:TIAN Jianhua
Affiliation:Center for Space Science and Applied Research, The Chinese Acadmp of Sciences, Beijing l00080
Abstract:BP neuraI networks were designed, thened and used t0 caregorize the data set andrecognize pattems in sunspot number vallation during the ascent and descent of solarcycles- A hist0rical data set of smo0thed monthly mean sunsPOt numbers for l75O ADtO the first half of l995 AD and the predicted values f0r the latter half of l995 tol996 were used. We 0btained good simulation results of the ascending Periods and smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers for each ascent Period of Solar Cycle l-22and fairly good forecasting results of the ascending Period and the maximum ofsmoothed monthiy mean sunspot number for Solar Cycle 22- Flnally, the paper givesthe following eshmared values for Sol4f Cycle 23: The maximum of smoothedmonthly mean sunspot number is l96 and the ascending Period is 38 months-
Keywords:BP neural networks   Sunspot numbers   Solar-terrestrial prediction
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