太阳黑子的分维数及其可预报性

本文利用1932年至1982年的逐日国际太阳黑子相对数的9日平均时间序列来分析太阳黑子演变的动力学特性,发现太阳黑子是至少需要七个独立变量来描述的复杂动力系统,其关联维数为6.3±0.1,二阶Renyi熵和最大Lyapunov指数分别为(0.37±0.02)bit/yr和(0.34±0.01)bit/yr,它们表征的可预报时间尺度,即初始误差增长一倍所需的时间分别为(2.7±0.2)年和(2.9±0.l)年。 

DIMENSION AND PREDICTION OF THE SUNSPOT

In this paper the 9 days meaned series of the dayly international sunspot numbers from 1932-1982 are used to analyse the dynamical properties of the sunspots evolution. It is concluded that the sunspot is a complex dynamical system which should be described by at least seven independent variables, and that its correlation dimension is 6.3 ± 0.1, the 2-order Renyi entropy and the maximum Lyapunov exponent are respectively (0.37 ±0.02) bit/yr. The predictable time scales that they indicate, namely, the time for initial error becoming 2 times larger, are (2.7±0.2) years and (2.9±0.1) years, respectively.