Assessment of the close approach frequency and collision probability for satellites in different configurations of large constellations

The Earth orbital environment is drastically changing due to an intensification of the space activities. In particular, several projects of large constellations, proposed for the next years for communications purpose like global internet access, Internet of Things, or for Earth observations, will lead to the deployment of several thousands of new satellites at an unprecedented rate. It is a crucial challenge for space traffic management, which will deal with a great number of satellite conjunctions, potentially causing a collision with damaging consequences for the constellation itself and the space environment sustainability.In this paper, we investigate the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability for each referenced constellation. For this purpose, we compute the orbital evolution of satellites in different constellations during the lifecycle, from the deployment to the decommissioning, and we apply the CUBE algorithm and the Foster method to assess the collision probability with the background space debris population assuming a constant uncertainty in position. We show the variation of risk defined by the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability as a function of the proposed configuration. In particular, satellites of the Iridium and Kuiper constellation, but also satellite of the Telesat constellation on polar orbits are the most exposed at a collision. Moreover, the decommissioning phase contribute for a major part to the final cumulative collision probability.     

Fault mode probability factor based fault-tolerant control for dissimilar redundant actuation system

This paper presents a Fault Mode Probability Factor (FMPF) based Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC) strategy for multiple faults of Dissimilar Redundant Actuation System (DRAS) composed of Hydraulic Actuator (HA) and Electro-Hydrostatic Actuator (EHA). The long-term service and severe working conditions can result in multiple gradual faults which can ultimately degrade the system performance, resulting in the system model drift into the fault state characterized with parameter uncertainty. The paper proposes to address this problem by using the historical statistics of the multiple gradual faults and the proposed FMPF to amend the system model with parameter uncertainty. To balance the system model precision and computation time, a Moving Window (MW) method is used to determine the applied historical statistics. The FMPF based FTC strategy is developed for the amended system model where the system estimation and Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) are updated at the end of system sampling period. The simulations of DRAS system subjected to multiple faults have been performed and the results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

Review and propositions for the sliding/impact wear behavior in a contact interface

A thermal-solid-liquid complex operational environment induces structural interface developing a typical coupling sliding/impact wear behavior. It results in contact damage until systems fail, which may cause significant economic losses and catastrophic consequences. The key point of solving this problem is to reveal the coupling damage mechanism of the sliding/impact behavior in typical systems and life characterization under a complicate evolving environment. This has been a hot topic in the area of mechanical reliability. The main work in this paper can be concluded as follows. Firstly, the main industries in which the “sliding/impact behavior” takes place have been introduced. Then, existing studies on the wear mechanism and degree analysis are presented, which includes surface morphology analysis, wear debris analysis, and wear degree measurement. Meanwhile, existing problems in theoretical modeling and experiments in current research are summarized, so as to point out a bright direction for future research on wear prediction. They include interface contact modeling, mathematic coupling mechanism modeling, wear equation establishment, and wear life characterization, which can provide some new ideas for improving the existing studies on the sliding/impact wear behavior.     

等质量异形粒子超高速撞击侵蚀

用数值方法模拟双锥，圆柱，椭球、圆锥和倒圆锥五类等质量异形铝粒子五种高宽比共２５种粒子对半无限铝靶的超高速撞击侵蚀，撞击速度为４ｋｍ／ｓ，给出了坑深、坑径、坑形参数和坑体积随粒子形状及高宽比的变化曲线。结果与非圆球异形粒子超高速撞击侵蚀计算有重要参考价值。     

Emergence of a Habitable Planet

We address the first several hundred million years of Earth’s history. The Moon-forming impact left Earth enveloped in a hot silicate atmosphere that cooled and condensed over ∼1,000 yrs. As it cooled the Earth degassed its volatiles into the atmosphere. It took another ∼2 Myrs for the magma ocean to freeze at the surface. The cooling rate was determined by atmospheric thermal blanketing. Tidal heating by the new Moon was a major energy source to the magma ocean. After the mantle solidified geothermal heat became climatologically insignificant, which allowed the steam atmosphere to condense, and left behind a ∼100 bar, ∼500 K CO₂ atmosphere. Thereafter cooling was governed by how quickly CO₂ was removed from the atmosphere. If subduction were efficient this could have taken as little as 10 million years. In this case the faint young Sun suggests that a lifeless Earth should have been cold and its oceans white with ice. But if carbonate subduction were inefficient the CO₂ would have mostly stayed in the atmosphere, which would have kept the surface near ∼500 K for many tens of millions of years. Hydrous minerals are harder to subduct than carbonates and there is a good chance that the Hadean mantle was dry. Hadean heat flow was locally high enough to ensure that any ice cover would have been thin (<5 m) in places. Moreover hundreds or thousands of asteroid impacts would have been big enough to melt the ice triggering brief impact summers. We suggest that plate tectonics as it works now was inadequate to handle typical Hadean heat flows of 0.2–0.5 W/m². In its place we hypothesize a convecting mantle capped by a ∼100 km deep basaltic mush that was relatively permeable to heat flow. Recycling and distillation of hydrous basalts produced granitic rocks very early, which is consistent with preserved >4 Ga detrital zircons. If carbonates in oceanic crust subducted as quickly as they formed, Earth could have been habitable as early as 10–20 Myrs after the Moon-forming impact.     

Modelling of Ejecta as a Space Debris Source

When a micro-debris or a micrometeoroid impacts a spacecraft surface, a large number of secondary particles, called ejecta, are produced. These particles can contribute to a modification of the debris environment: either locally by the occurrence of secondary impacts on the components of complex and large space structures, or at great distance by the formation of a population of small orbital debris. This paper describes firstly, the ejecta overall production, and secondly, the lifetime and the orbital evolution of the particles. Finally the repartition of ejecta in LEO is computed. Some results describing the population as a function of size and altitude are presented.     

掠海飞行导弹击水概率的仿真研究

本文对掠海导弹的击水概率问题进行了研究,提出了用均匀设计、Monte—Carlo法和逐步回归法建立击水概率预报公式的仿真方法,并结合某型号的反舰导弹进行计算,得到了满意的结果。本文还利用表观频率和表观频谱的概念,建立起飞航导弹的背景干扰——海浪和阵风的数学模型,并用波叠加法进行了数字仿真。     

利用遥测数据预报导弹落点的方法

给出利用遥测数据对导弹进行落点预报的方法。根据遥测数据传输多遍的特点，对解码后的ＰＣＭ 数据进行处理，得到误码率很小的数据。然后对头体分离时刻前导弹飞行的状况和遥测数据进行分析，从而对发动机后效误差进行修正，得到较精确的导弹运动参数，最后利用弹道方程预报导弹落点     

基于损伤力学的概率疲劳曲线获取方法

文章基于损伤力学方法获得满足疲劳试验的损伤演化方程,推导出一般条件下的理论疲劳曲线以及相对应的理论中值疲劳曲线与理论理想疲劳曲线；然后根据试验数据即可确定理论疲劳曲线中的参量,从而获取疲劳曲线计算公式。通过此计算公式,可以方便地得到一组以初始损伤为参数的疲劳曲线族,继而得到以失效概率为参数的疲劳曲线族,大大降低了所需试验的数量,并为结构抗疲劳设计和寿命估算提供了依据。     

基于信息流电路可测试性的度量

准确地度量电路的可测试性是数字系统测试的重要问题之一。本文提出了一种基于信息流度量电路可测试性的方法,它表明可以将一个数字电路看成是一个信息处理系统。因此,电路的可测试性的度量值定义为电路输出的平均信息量与输入的平均信息量的最大值之比。文中给出了如何应用逻辑模拟软件来计算电路可测试性的度量值。对于由模块组成的电路,可以通过模块之间的一些特殊操作求得整个电路可测试性的度量值,本文也给出了方法及实例。文中还给出了应用本文提出的方法进行电路可测试性度量的实例,并与文[1,5]的方法得到的结果进行了比较,从而说明了本文方法的特点。