简化Q矩阵的渐增式扩张生成算法

简化Q矩阵（Qr阵）是规则空间模型与属性层次方法的重要概念。基于属性层次结构,提出有效／无效项目的定义,研究属性层次结构的可达矩阵与有效项目之间的关系,给出有效／无效项目的判定定理。基于逐步向前回归的思想提出了求解Qr阵的渐增式扩张算法,给出相关理论依据。在考虑有效项目数的基础上,与Tatsuoka方法进行了实验比较,对属性个数为10的情况采用线性回归方法为两种方法建立了数学模型。     

Impact of helio-and geophysical disturbances on thermobaric and climatic characteristics of the Earth’s troposphere

We present the mechanism and the concept of a model of the solar activity impact on thermobaric and climatic characteristics of the troposphere. Both are based on the idea of parametric action. The results of analysis are presented concerning specific features and regularities of changes in temperature regime of the troposphere in the period of variable helio-and geophysical activity, as well as long-term variations of temperature and heat content of the troposphere. The influence of changes in circulation in the atmosphere and ocean on processes in the system atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere is considered: thermohaline circulation of the oceans and energy exchange between the atmosphere and ocean. The revealed regularities find their complete explanation within the context of a model and mechanism of solar activity impact on climatic characteristics of the troposphere that were suggested previously by the authors.     

Model estimations of possible climatic changes in 21st century at different scenarios of solar and volcanic activities and anthropogenic impact

We have made estimations of climatic changes in the 21st century at different scenarios of changes in the solar and volcanic activities using ensemble calculations with the help of a three-dimensional climatic model taking the carbon cycle into account. This model was developed in the Oboukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences. An ensemble of scenarios is used for possible changes of the solar radiation flux in the 21st century, based on different methods of extrapolation of the data for the period 1610–2000. Along with this, different scenarios of volcanic activity in the 21st century are used. The results of thus made calculations are indicative of a rather small role played by the solar activity variations in changes of the global mean annual near-surface temperature in the 21st century as compared to the expected anthropogenic impact. Model changes of the global near-surface temperature in the 21st century (possible variations of the solar radiation and volcanic activity included) are characterized by a general increase determined in the main by anthropogenic SRES scenarios.     

Forecasting the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances produced by it

A brief review is given of contemporary approaches to solving the problem of medium-term forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) and of the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by it. At the present time, two promising models of calculating the velocity of quasi-stationary SW at the Earth’s orbit are realized. One model is the semi-empirical model of Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) which allows one to calculate the dependence V(t) of SW velocity at the Earth’s orbit using measured values of the photospheric magnetic field. This model is based on calculation of the local divergence f _S of magnetic field lines. The second model is semi-empirical model by Eselevich-Fainshtein-Rudenko (EFR). It is based on calculation in a potential approximation of the area of foot points on the solar surface of open magnetic tubes (sources of fast quasistationary SW). The new Bd-technology is used in these calculations, allowing one to calculate instantaneous distributions of the magnetic field above the entire visible surface of the Sun. Using predicted V(t) profiles, one can in EFR model calculate also the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by quasi-stationary SW. This intensity is expressed through the K _p index. In this paper the EFR model is discussed in detail. Some examples of epignosis and real forecast of V(t) and K _p (t) are discussed. A comparison of the results of applying these two models for the SW velocity forecasting is presented.     

Long-term variations of asymmetry of the solar magnetic field and geometry of the interplanetary magnetic field

A comparative analysis of variations of the mean solar magnetic field and the interplanetary magnetic field over all history of their measurements is performed. Asymmetry of the solar magnetic field and its manifestation in the heliosphere is investigated. Long-term variations of the solar magnetic field and the heliosphere, which manifest themselves in alternation of dominating magnetic polarities of different sign, are discovered. On the basis of the analysis of cumulative sums of the IMF components, long-term variations of the IMF geometry and of the solar wind spiral angle are found. The cumulative sum of the IMF B _z component perpendicular to the ecliptic plane also shows long-term variations. Time intervals are revealed, in which negative values of the IMF B _z component dominate, and an increased geomagnetic activity is observed.