Assessment of the close approach frequency and collision probability for satellites in different configurations of large constellations

The Earth orbital environment is drastically changing due to an intensification of the space activities. In particular, several projects of large constellations, proposed for the next years for communications purpose like global internet access, Internet of Things, or for Earth observations, will lead to the deployment of several thousands of new satellites at an unprecedented rate. It is a crucial challenge for space traffic management, which will deal with a great number of satellite conjunctions, potentially causing a collision with damaging consequences for the constellation itself and the space environment sustainability.In this paper, we investigate the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability for each referenced constellation. For this purpose, we compute the orbital evolution of satellites in different constellations during the lifecycle, from the deployment to the decommissioning, and we apply the CUBE algorithm and the Foster method to assess the collision probability with the background space debris population assuming a constant uncertainty in position. We show the variation of risk defined by the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability as a function of the proposed configuration. In particular, satellites of the Iridium and Kuiper constellation, but also satellite of the Telesat constellation on polar orbits are the most exposed at a collision. Moreover, the decommissioning phase contribute for a major part to the final cumulative collision probability.     

A survey of safety separation management and collision avoidance approaches of civil UAS operating in integration national airspace system

Recent years have witnessed a booming of the industry of civil Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS). As an emerging industry, the UAS industry has been attracting great attention from governments of all countries and the aviation industry. UAS are highly digitalized, informationized, and intelligent; therefore, their integration into the national airspace system has become an important trend in the development of civil aviation. However, the complexity of UAS operation poses great challenges to the traditional aviation regulatory system and technical means. How to prevent collisions between UASs and between UAS and manned aircraft to achieve safe and efficient operation in the integrated operating airspace has become a common challenge for industry and academia around the world. In recent years, the international community has carried out a great amount of work and experiments in the air traffic management of UAS and some of the key technologies. This paper attempts to make a review of the UAS separation management and key technologies in collision avoidance in the integrated airspace, mainly focusing on the current situation of UAS Traffic Management (UTM), safety separation standards, detection system, collision risk prediction, collision avoidance, safety risk assessment, etc., as well as an analysis of the bottlenecks that the current researches encountered and their development trends, so as to provide some insights and references for further research in this regard. Finally, this paper makes a further summary of some of the research highlights and challenges.     

Fault mode probability factor based fault-tolerant control for dissimilar redundant actuation system

This paper presents a Fault Mode Probability Factor (FMPF) based Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC) strategy for multiple faults of Dissimilar Redundant Actuation System (DRAS) composed of Hydraulic Actuator (HA) and Electro-Hydrostatic Actuator (EHA). The long-term service and severe working conditions can result in multiple gradual faults which can ultimately degrade the system performance, resulting in the system model drift into the fault state characterized with parameter uncertainty. The paper proposes to address this problem by using the historical statistics of the multiple gradual faults and the proposed FMPF to amend the system model with parameter uncertainty. To balance the system model precision and computation time, a Moving Window (MW) method is used to determine the applied historical statistics. The FMPF based FTC strategy is developed for the amended system model where the system estimation and Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) are updated at the end of system sampling period. The simulations of DRAS system subjected to multiple faults have been performed and the results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

卫星成本预测的蒙特卡洛优化模型研究

传统的卫星成本预测模型预测结果单一，未考虑相应的不确定性因素。对此，提出了基于蒙特卡洛方法的卫星成本预测模型。该模型综合考虑了卫星成本技术的不确定性并给出了预测值的区间范围和概率分布。为了降低应用该模型所产生的误差，提出了最优分层抽样的方法，并通过划分分层区间提高了抽样的效率。最后，将收集到的相关数据代人该模型，其结果精度大约提高了10％左右。可见，使用优化的蒙特卡洛方法进行卫星成本预测具有较好的精确度。     

红外探测阵列对固体导弹尾焰跟踪定位的研究

通过分析研究建立了前视红外探测阵列ＦＬＩＲ（Ｆｏｒｗａｒｄ Ｌｏｏｋｉｎｇ Ｉｎｆｒａ－Ｒｅｄ）对导弹进行精确跟踪、定位的数学模型，其中包括导弹的运动模型、大气干扰模型和探测阵列的观测模型。利用探测阵列ＦＬＩＲ的原始观测数据，扩展卡尔曼滤波器（ＥＫＦ）精确跟踪导弹目标。由于导弹与探测器的距离较远，故为视为点目标。导弹在探测阵列上投影的位置由两部分组成：导弹真实运动位置和由于大气干扰造成的偏移。滤波     

低密度小喷管流场的DSMC直接模拟

用ＤＳＭＣ方法数值模拟了低密度轴对小喷管的流场流动，获得了相应的结果，并将所得结果与用差分求解Ｎ－Ｓ方程方法获得的结果进行了对比，二者吻合较好。     

铁磁性纳米线阵列磁滞回线的模拟

讨论了铁磁性纳米线磁滞回线的特点及其影响因素，使用蒙特卡洛方法模拟了在周期性边界条件下的磁性纳米线阵列的磁滞回线，利用模拟的方法研究了不同长度的混乱度对平均长度相同的铁磁性纳米线阵列磁滞回线的影响。研究发现，铁磁性纳米线阵列的长度的混乱度越高，其磁滞回线的饱和磁场强度随着升高．剩余磁化强度则有所降低。     

SRM 纤维缠绕壳体的蒙特卡罗随机有限元分析

采用蒙特卡罗随机有限元方法，结合复合材料壳体力学、纤维缠绕理论等知识，分析了固体火箭发动机纤维缠绕壳体在燃气内压随机变化作用下的应力响应，绘出应力分布曲线，为固体火箭发动机结构可靠性评估奠定基础。     

空间任意形状凸面的轨道空间外热流计算方法

采用蒙特卡罗（ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ）方法，进行了平板、半球面、抛物面的地球反照角系数和地球红外角系数计算，通过与文献数据的比较，证明了由此方法所编程序的可靠性和实用性。利用这种方法，可以计算空间任意形状凸表面的轨道空间外热流。     

研究用现场数据估计系统可靠性参数置信区间

研究用元部件现场信息估计系统可靠性参数,如系统可靠度、可靠寿命等区间估计问题。文中提出了一种新的估计方法——替换百分点法,并运用Monte Carlo数字仿真对估计的置信度和精度进行了分析,研究结果表明此方法具有工程应用价值。