A summary of the applications of a weighted average method determining times of solar cycle extrema

This paper is a summary of our recent researches on the applications of a weighted average method determining times of solar cycle extrema in the prediction of solar activity. Some correlation coefficients among the parameters in solar cycle according to this definition are higher than those according to the conventional definition. The descending time is found to be correlated (r = −0.77) with the ascending time 3 cycles earlier. The amplitude of solar cycle is found to be correlated (r = −0.77) with the max–max solar cycle length 2 cycles earlier. The ascending time is found to be correlated (r = −0.72) with the amplitude. A newly defined parameter called effective duration is found to be well correlated (r = 0.86) with the amplitude 5 cycles later. These correlations suggest that earlier cycles should influence later ones. The next (24th) solar cycle is estimated to start in March 2007 ± 7 months, reach its maximum in January 2011 ± 14 months, with a size of 150 ± 22, larger than those from some correlations according to the conventional definition.     

Phase asynchrony between coronal index and sunspot numbers

In this paper, the phase asynchrony between coronal index and sunspot numbers is investigated. It is found that, (1) the sunspot numbers begin one month earlier than coronal index, which should mathematically lead to phase asynchrony between them but with a slight effect; (2) the 11-year Schwabe cycle is the only one period with statistical significance for coronal index and sunspot numbers, and the difference between the length of the Schwabe cycle of them should also lead to phase asynchrony between them; (3) although coronal index and sunspot numbers are coherent in low-frequency components corresponding to the 11-year Schwabe cycle, they are asynchronous in phase in high-frequency components; (4) their different definitions and physical meanings may be a major reason why there is a phase asynchrony between them.     

Active Region Dynamics

New methods of local helioseismology and uninterrupted time series of solar oscillation data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) have led to a major advance in our understanding of the structure and dynamics of active regions in the subsurface layers. The initial results show that large active regions are formed by repeated magnetic flux emergence from the deep interior, and that their roots are at least 50 Mm deep. The active regions change the temperature structure and flow dynamics of the upper convection zone, forming large circulation cells of converging flows. The helioseismic observations also indicate that the processes of magnetic energy release, flares and coronal mass ejections, might be associated with strong (1–2 km/s) shearing flows, 4–6 Mm below the surface.