Evaluation of three high-resolution satellite precipitation estimates: Potential for monsoon monitoring over Pakistan

Multi-sensor precipitation datasets including two products from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and estimates from Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH) product were quantitatively evaluated to study the monsoon variability over Pakistan. Several statistical and graphical techniques are applied to illustrate the nonconformity of the three satellite products from the gauge observations. During the monsoon season (JAS), the three satellite precipitation products captures the intense precipitation well, all showing high correlation for high rain rates (>30 mm/day). The spatial and temporal satellite rainfall error variability shows a significant geo-topography dependent distribution, as all the three products overestimate over mountain ranges in the north and coastal region in the south parts of Indus basin. The TMPA-RT product tends to overestimate light rain rates (approximately 100%) and the bias is low for high rain rates (about ±20%). In general, daily comparisons from 2005 to 2010 show the best agreement between the TMPA-V7 research product and gauge observations with correlation coefficient values ranging from moderate (0.4) to high (0.8) over the spatial domain of Pakistan. The seasonal variation of rainfall frequency has large biases (100–140%) over high latitudes (36N) with complex terrain for daily, monsoon, and pre-monsoon comparisons. Relatively low uncertainties and errors (Bias ±25% and MAE 1–10 mm) were associated with the TMPA-RT product during the monsoon-dominated region (32–35N), thus demonstrating their potential use for developing an operational hydrological application of the satellite-based near real-time products in Pakistan for flood monitoring.     

基于EMD的东亚夏季风年代际变化特征及与太阳活动的关系

应用英国气象局哈德利气象研究中心(HadleyCenter)及美国环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)的海平面气压(SeaLevelPressure,SLP)资料归一化得出1850-2011年的东亚夏季风指数,利用经验模态分解(EmpiricalModeDecomposition,EMD)方法对其变化特征进行分析,得到东亚夏季风指数的周期特征.太阳黑子活动与东亚夏季风活动存在相同的11年及80年左右周期,其中11年周期变化尤为明显.对比1850-2011年间太阳黑子数与东亚夏季风指数经验模态分解后的11年周期变化分量,发现两者波动振幅变化基本一致.      

Impact of four dimensional assimilation of satellite data on long-range simulations over the Indian region during monsoon 2006

A number of experiments were conducted to study the impact of updating model basic fields by satellite data (Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT) surface winds and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature and humidity profiles) on long-range simulation during the Indian summer monsoon 2006. The Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model version5 (MM5) and its four dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) technique was used for the numerical simulations. The spatial distribution and temporal variation in model simulated basic meteorological parameters and rainfall were verified against the observed fields from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analysis and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), respectively. The overall analysis of the results from QSCAT surface wind assimilation as compared to control simulation (CNT; without the satellite data assimilation) suggest that a better representation of a single level wind field during model integration fail to make significant improvement in the model simulation both in the basic meteorological parameters and rainfall. The assimilation of temperature and humidity profiles from the AIRS during model integration significantly improved the rainfall prediction during monsoon period. It is found that the improvement in rainfall prediction is attributed to improved thermodynamics structure due to AIRS profile assimilation and the degree of improvement is more in temperature prediction as compared to humidity prediction. It is also found that the prediction over the regions, such as south west part of India and foothills of Himalaya, where a complex orography exists, is not significantly benefited from satellite data assimilation which highlights the need of improvement in the model in addition to a better representation of atmospheric state.     

积云对流参数化方案对东亚夏季风模拟对比

利用MM5模式对比5种不同积云对流参数化方案,即Kuo方案、Grell方案、Kain-Fritsch方案、Betts-Miller方案和赵思雄修改的Kuo方案对东亚季风区强、弱季风年夏季风的模拟能力。结果表明:5种对流参数化方案对各季节都有一定的模拟能力,各个方案对降雨的预报能力随地区和年际而有所不同,对强季风年grell和bm方案对雨带特征的描述较好,对弱季风年bm和zhao方案对雨带的模拟与实际最为接近。     

时变平均风提取方法研究

非平稳风速模型将实测风速记录分解为时变平均风与平稳脉动风的叠加。研究提出利用脉动风平稳度指标确定时变平均风的方法,定义不同时距摩阻速度的比值为脉动风平稳度指标,在所有可能的选择中,最优时变平均风应使脉动风在满足平稳性要求的同时平稳度指标最大。应用于实测10分钟550组台风及3300组季风数据表明该提取方法合理有效。     

Study the behavior of the ionospheric frequencies at Karachi during three consecutive solar minima of cycle 21, 22 & 23 and their comparison with IRI-2016

The behavior of critical frequencies of ionospheric E and F2 layers (foE & foF2) along with minimum ionospheric frequency (fmin) is studied for solar minima of cycle 21 (1986), 22 (1996) and 23 (2008) over Karachi (24.95$°$N, 67.13$°$E), Pakistan. The station is located at the crest of equatorial ionization anomaly region. Beside seasonal differences, pronounced change in the values of frequencies is noted from one solar minimum to another solar minimum. A strong and direct correlation of foF2 with Smoothed Sunspot Number (SSN) and F10.7?cm solar flux is observed. In the minimum of cycle 23, reduction in foF2 is noted due to reduction of solar EUV as compared to other minima. Also disappearance of semi-annual variations in foF2 is noted in cycle 23 minimum. Unexpectedly higher values of foE and fmin are observed in minimum of cycle 23 as compared to other minima. It is difficult to explain this unusual behavior of fmin and foE along with disappearance of semi-annual variation in foF2. It is possible that during very low solar activity, thermospheric conditions are changed which in turn altered the ionosphere. Further investigation of atmosphere-ionosphere coupling is required to understand this complex behavior. On comparison of observed values with IRI-2016, higher deviations are observed in foE before noon hours while in case of foF2, large deviations are noted during daytime. The absence of foF2 semi-annual variation in cycle 23 is not reproduced by IRI-2016. It is suggested that IRI-2016 need some modification for extremely low solar activity condition.     

Comparing IRI and a regional model with ionosonde measurements in Pakistan

We have used the technique of expansion in Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) to develop regional models of the critical frequencies of E and F₂ layers (f_oE, f_oF₂), peak height (h_mF₂), and semi-thickness of F₂ layer (Y_mF₂) over Pakistan. In the present study levels of solar activity specified by Smoothed Sunspot Number (R) from 10 to 200 are taken into account. The magnetic dip angle for the model ranges from 30° to 60°. We have compared the regional model and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) with measurements of three ionosondes in Pakistan. The model parameters f_oE and f_oF₂ are found overall comparable to the observed hourly median values during daytime at Karachi (geographic latitude = 24.95°N, longitude = 67.13°E, magnetic inclination = 37°), Multan (30.18°N, 71.48°E, 45°) and Islamabad (33.75°N, 73.13°E, 51.5°) during the years 1988, 1996 and 2000. For h_mF₂ the computed values by regional and IRI model for the year 1995 are found close to each other. However, for Y_mF₂the results are better during daytime as compared to nighttime.