Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

基于SRAM型FPGA单粒子效应综合防护技术

为解决基于SRAM(Static Random Access Memory,静态随机存储器)型FPGA(Field Programmable Gate Array,现场可编程门阵列)的扩频应答机在空间环境中时常发生功能故障的难题,提出了一种低轨卫星基于SRAM型FPGA的应答机的单粒子综合防护方案。该方案在代码级、器件级、单机级、整星级综合采用器件优选、结构屏蔽设计、巡检自愈、自主复位等多种方法,有效杜绝了单粒子事件带来的种种危害,已成功应用于某在轨卫星。在轨测试结果表明:遥测、遥控、跟踪测量等功能、性能指标满足任务要求,且未发生需要地面干预的问题或现象。该技术还可推广应用于其他采用低等级器件及其他类型FPGA、DSP(Digital Signal Processing,数字信号处理)等大规模集成电路的星载单机防护。     

Type II Solar Radio Bursts: Theory and Space Weather Implications

Recent data and theory for type II solar radio bursts are reviewed, focusing on a recent analytic quantitative theory for interplanetary type II bursts. The theory addresses electron reflection and acceleration at the type II shock, formation of electron beams in the foreshock, and generation of Langmuir waves and the type II radiation there. The theory's predictions as functions of the shock and plasma parameters are summarized and discussed in terms of space weather events. The theory is consistent with available data, has explanations for radio-loud/quiet coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and why type IIs are bursty, and can account for empirical correlations between type IIs, CMEs, and interplanetary disturbances. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

高速飞行条件下CMC材料细观热响应特性

耐高温防热结构性能评估与设计是保障高速飞行器热安全的重要前提;精确预测真实飞行条件下防热结构非稳态热响应特性至关重要。以典型陶瓷基复合防热结构（CMC）为研究对象;分别基于有限体积法（FVM）和有限差分法（FDM）开展了飞行器前缘外流场计算以及对流辐射耦合条件下CMC材料代表单元体（REV）模型与等效模型热响应过程模拟;对比分析了瞬时气动热载荷条件下CMC材料非稳态热响应特性。研究表明:REV模型的热响应在流热耦合条件下反映出更为复杂的时空分布特性;在给定的高速飞行条件下;气动热载荷条件为150.34 kW/m²;相较于等效模型;其壁面最大温差可达21.78 K;且热流差极值延后温差极值2.39 s出现;结构内部温度分布与基体和纱线的空间分布及热物性强相关;沿厚度方向温度梯度呈逐渐衰减的“振荡”波形。相关研究结论可为飞行器热防护系统低冗余设计及热环境精确预测提供重要理论参考。     

高空飞行环境中液体运载火箭底部热环境研究

采用数值模拟和飞行测试验证相结合的方法对液体运载火箭高空对流/辐射耦合换热问题开展系统深入研究。基于燃气多组分输运Navier-Stokes方程、热辐射方程、Realizable k-ε两方程湍流模型,建立了高空含自由流的运载火箭燃气喷流流动模型。辐射模型采用离散坐标法(DOM),空间离散采用二阶迎风TVD格式,对多个典型飞行高度火箭底部热流进行大型并行计算,将数值结果与试验数据进行广泛对比,验证了计算模型的精度和有效性。数值研究表明,火箭底部辐射热流在刚起飞阶段达到最大值,随着飞行高度上升,辐射热流逐渐降低,火箭底部对流热流表现为先升高后降低的趋势,并在20 km高空达到峰值。本文的预测分析方法对液体运载火箭底部热防护设计具有重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。     

基于蒙特卡罗法辐射传递系数的统计分析

文章基于蒙特卡罗方法定义了表面热辐射换热辐射传递系数的表达式,确定其概率分布和置信度水平并进行统计分析.推导封闭腔内辐射传递系数的相对和绝对误差公式,为求解辐射传递系数所需追踪射线数量提供参考依据.     

高能(450kV)X射线参考辐射场附加过滤研究

利用MCNP程序对450kV X光机建立模型,计算各参考辐射质下的原级谱、平均光子能量。对ISO4037-1中已有范围的管电压与附加过滤片厚度关系曲线进行二次拟合,确定模拟厚度范围。利用MCNP计算各附加过滤组合下的平均光子能量值,并与外推法得出的平均光子能量值进行对比,将相对偏差最小时的附加过滤作为最终确定值。从部分能量点的模拟与测量结果的对比可看出,模拟得出的平均光子能量在2%以内与PTB及中国计量院测量结果保持一致,附加过滤最大相对偏差为18%。     

机载雷达罩热载荷仿真分析关键技术研究

研究了机载雷达罩热载荷仿真分析的3个关键技术,一是雷达罩及天线的CAD建模技术,并应用Fluent计算罩体外表面温度;二是建立雷达罩的多腔体热辐射模型,以得到雷达罩内表面的温度分布;三是温度插值技术,用以将流场计算得到的温度值插值到对应的热应力分析模型上。     

再入体实验模型热化学非平衡绕流流场的数值分析

利用数值求解一个和多个振动温度热化学非平衡Navier-Stokes方程的CFD计算程序,对爆轰风洞球锥试验模型的热化学非平衡绕流流场进行了数值模拟,分析了分子组分振动温度在全流场(头身部流场和底部流场)中的分布规律.研究结果表明:(1)计算的压力、电子数密度以及流场的光辐射数据与试验数据符合较好;(2)在再入体身部,大多数分子的振动温度峰值大大高于平动温度的峰值;在再入体近尾出现振动温度冻结并大大高于平动温度的现象;CO2的两个振动态的振动温度分布非常接近平动温度分布.