Assessment of the close approach frequency and collision probability for satellites in different configurations of large constellations

The Earth orbital environment is drastically changing due to an intensification of the space activities. In particular, several projects of large constellations, proposed for the next years for communications purpose like global internet access, Internet of Things, or for Earth observations, will lead to the deployment of several thousands of new satellites at an unprecedented rate. It is a crucial challenge for space traffic management, which will deal with a great number of satellite conjunctions, potentially causing a collision with damaging consequences for the constellation itself and the space environment sustainability.In this paper, we investigate the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability for each referenced constellation. For this purpose, we compute the orbital evolution of satellites in different constellations during the lifecycle, from the deployment to the decommissioning, and we apply the CUBE algorithm and the Foster method to assess the collision probability with the background space debris population assuming a constant uncertainty in position. We show the variation of risk defined by the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability as a function of the proposed configuration. In particular, satellites of the Iridium and Kuiper constellation, but also satellite of the Telesat constellation on polar orbits are the most exposed at a collision. Moreover, the decommissioning phase contribute for a major part to the final cumulative collision probability.     

Development and performance evaluation of tropospheric scintillation model on Ku-band satellite link over Akure,Nigeria

Existing amplitude scintillation prediction models often perform less satisfactorily when deployed outside the regions where they were formulated. This necessitates the need to evaluate the performance of scintillation models developed in one region using data data from other regions while documenting their relative errors. Due to its variation with elevation angle, frequency, other link parameters and meteorological factors, we employed three years (January 2016 to December 2018) of concurrently measured satellite radio beacons and tropospheric weather parameters to develop a location-based amplitude scintillation prediction model over the Earth-space path of Akure (7.17^oN, 5.18^oE), South-western Nigeria. The satellite beacon measurement used Tektronix Y400 NetTek Analyzer at 1 s integration time while meteorological parameters, namely; temperature, pressure and relative humidity were measured using Davis Vantage Vue weather station at 1 min integration time. Comparative study of the model’s performance with nine (9) existing scintillation prediction models indicates that the best and worst performing models, in terms of root mean square error (RMSE), are the Statistical Temperature and Refractivity (STN) and direct physical and statistical prediction (DPSP) models with values 11.48 and 51.03 respectively. Also, worst month analysis indicates that April, with respective enhancement and fade values of 0.88 and 0.90 dB for 0.01% exceedance, is the overall worst calendar month for amplitude scintillation.     

A survey of safety separation management and collision avoidance approaches of civil UAS operating in integration national airspace system

Recent years have witnessed a booming of the industry of civil Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS). As an emerging industry, the UAS industry has been attracting great attention from governments of all countries and the aviation industry. UAS are highly digitalized, informationized, and intelligent; therefore, their integration into the national airspace system has become an important trend in the development of civil aviation. However, the complexity of UAS operation poses great challenges to the traditional aviation regulatory system and technical means. How to prevent collisions between UASs and between UAS and manned aircraft to achieve safe and efficient operation in the integrated operating airspace has become a common challenge for industry and academia around the world. In recent years, the international community has carried out a great amount of work and experiments in the air traffic management of UAS and some of the key technologies. This paper attempts to make a review of the UAS separation management and key technologies in collision avoidance in the integrated airspace, mainly focusing on the current situation of UAS Traffic Management (UTM), safety separation standards, detection system, collision risk prediction, collision avoidance, safety risk assessment, etc., as well as an analysis of the bottlenecks that the current researches encountered and their development trends, so as to provide some insights and references for further research in this regard. Finally, this paper makes a further summary of some of the research highlights and challenges.     

任意波发生器静态特性的评价

介绍了任意波发生器的主要静态特性指标、校准方法及实现过程。通过一组实验．获得了实际校准结果，并对校准中需要注意的问题进行了讨论。所述方法涉及的静态特性内容比较全面。具有足够的测量准确度、分辨力和稳定性。可用于任意波发生器的静态指标评价和计量。     

飞机选型的模糊评判

本文把模糊数学的模糊变换原理用于购买新机型的评判。给出了各评判指标的定义和隶属度:并按 Saatz 的二元对比标度确定各指标的重要度;以及模糊变换的计算方法和应用举例。     

历经十年寿命试验的消旋天线机构轴承的可靠性分析

解决了一个计算可靠性问题的特例。分析了消旋天线机构轴承历经10年寿命试验的可靠性问题。并给出了轴承在不同可靠寿命要求下的可靠度(对应不同置信度)。     

金融工程对我国国有银行信用风险管理的启示

多年来信用风险都是各国银行所面临的主要风险,由于历史的原因我国国有银行的信用风险管理问题显得更为突出.针对国有银行信用风险管理现状,引入最新的金融工程的方法和理念,从技术创新和制度创新的角度对国有银行的信用风险管理提出建议.     

变轨发动机不等量截尾试验可靠度评估

对于可靠度要求极高和任务时间以小时计的变轨发动机来说，目前广泛采用以铌合金为材料并喷涂以抗高温氧化涂层方案的推力室，这一类发动机在方案试验阶段结束后的研制试验中往往只出现截尾试验的结果。给出了不等量截尾试验结果的可靠度评估方案。     

Collision Risk Mitigation in Geostationary Orbit

The short- and long-term effects of spacecraft explosions, as a function of the end-of-life re-orbit altitude above the geostationary orbit (GEO), were analyzed in terms of their additional contribution to the debris flux in the GEO ring. The simulated debris clouds were propagated for 72yrs, taking into account all the relevant orbital perturbations.The results obtained show that 6–7 additional explosions in GEO would be sufficient, in the long term, to double the current collision risk with sizable objects in GEO. Unfortunately, even if spacecraft were to re-orbit between 300 and 500km above GEO, this would not significantly improve the situation. In fact, an altitude increase of at least 2000km would have to be adopted to reduce by one order of magnitude the long-term risk of collision among geostationary satellites and explosion fragments. The optimal debris mitigation strategy should be a compromise between the reliability and effectiveness of spacecraft end-of-life passivation, the re-orbit altitude and the acceptable debris background in the GEO ring. However, for as long as the re-orbit altitudes currently used are less than 500km above GEO, new spacecraft explosions must be avoided in order to preserve the geostationary environment over the long term.     

威布尔型产品的可靠性评估方法研究

在简要介绍极大拟然和小概率原理的基础上，针对威布尔型产品特征寿命的求取方法在各种文献中没有介绍、经典的双威布尔型串并联系统的可靠性评估方法既繁琐又不精确等情况，详细论述了如何运用威布尔型单机产品的可靠性试验样本求取其特征寿命，如何运用等效折合的方法求取威布尔型串并联系统的可靠性置信下限，最后对某威布尔型发动机系统的可靠性进行了评估,取得了较理想的结果。