27-day variation in solar-terrestrial parameters: Global characteristics and an origin based approach of the signals

The Earth and the near interplanetary medium are affected by the Sun in different ways. Those processes generated in the Sun that induce perturbations into the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system are called geoeffective processes and show a wide range of temporal variations, like the 11-year solar cycle (long term variations), the variation of ～27?days (recurrent variations), solar storms enduring for some days, particle acceleration events lasting for some hours, etc.In this article, the periodicity of ～27?days associated with the solar synodic rotation period is investigated. The work is mainly focused on studying the resulting 27-day periodic signal in the magnetic activity, by the analysis of the horizontal component of the magnetic field registered on a set of 103 magnetic observatories distributed around the world. For this a new method to isolate the periodicity of interest has been developed consisting of two main steps: the first one consists of removing the linear trend corresponding to every calendar year from the data series, and the second one of removing from the resulting series a smoothed version of it obtained by applying a 30-day moving average. The result at the end of this process is a data series in which all the signal with periods larger than 30?days are canceled.The most important characteristics observed in the resulting signals are two main amplitude modulations: the first and most prominent related to the 11-year solar cycle and the second one with a semiannual pattern. In addition, the amplitude of the signal shows a dependence on the geomagnetic latitude of the observatory with a significant discontinuity at approx. ±60°.The processing scheme was also applied to other parameters that are widely used to characterize the energy transfer from the Sun to the Earth: F10.7 and Mg II indices and the ionospheric vertical total electron content (vTEC) were considered for radiative interactions; and the solar wind velocity for the non-radiative interactions between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. The 27-day signal obtained in the magnetic activity was compared with the signals found in the other parameters resulting in a series of cross-correlations curves with maximum correlation between 3 and 5?days of delays for the radiative and between 0 and 1?days of delay for the non-radiative parameters. This result supports the idea that the physical process responsible for the 27-day signal in the magnetic activity is related to the solar wind and not to the solar electromagnetic radiation.     

航空热处理特点和发展

分析了航空热处理特点,介绍了航空热处理现状和新技术,分析论述了航空热处理今后发展预测和研究课题.     

基于灰色系统预测直升机航迹的研究

 反直升机智能雷对直升机航迹的预测在作战中非常重要,但在数据非常有限的情况下,准确地预测又很困难。提出了用灰色系统理论解决直升机航迹预测问题,建立了灰色系统 GM预测模型和 n次累加残差模型并对GM预测模型进行修正。在每个采样期间内,实时在线建立GM预测模型和残差模型以提高预测精度。通过实例计算能看出用较少的探测数据可以得到较高的预测精度。     

Observations of a quasi-90-day oscillation in the MLT winds and tides over an equatorial station using meteor radar winds

An evident signature of a least studied quasi-90-day oscillation is found in the winds and tides in the MLT from an equatorial station, São João do Cariri (7.4°S, 36.5°W). The oscillation is found to appear mainly in certain intervals with small but appreciable seasonal (fourth harmonic of annual oscillation) contribution. The maximum amplitude of the oscillation is found to be around 10 m/s in the zonal wind. The enhancement peak of the oscillation exhibits downward movement indicating a plausible role of upward moving waves/tides in carrying its imprint from below to the MLT. Similar oscillation feature in the tropospheric zonal wind and ozone may imply its lower atmospheric origin as a component of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) that moves upward by modulating the tides. Subsequently, the propagating tides (mainly semidiurnal) are enhanced by the ozone in the stratosphere through absorption of solar UV radiation and finally manifest the oscillation in the MLT. Consistency of the present findings with the past investigations are observed in some aspects of the oscillation, whereas existing mismatches in others are believed to be due to geophysical variability depending on space and time among various locations on the globe.     

中国区域多机场系统旅客吞吐量预测方法研究

随着航空运输业的发展,区域单一枢纽格局被打破,区域性枢纽和次枢纽逐渐形成,进而产生区域多机场系统。对影响旅客在区域多机场系统中选择机场时的主要因素进行了分析,并以上海、杭州为中心的区域多机场系统为例,根据旅客选择机场的偏好,确定了三方面主要影响因素——机场的航班状况、航空运输票价水平和机场服务质量,运用多项式logit（MNL）模型对区域多机场系统中各机场分担率,以及相应旅客吞吐量的预测方法进行了研究,为未来机场预测体系的建立提供了定量分析的方法和思路。     

基于双层K近邻算法航站楼短时客流量预测

航站楼离港客流量在短时期内呈现准周期性规律变化,易受航班计划、天气等多种因素影响,表现出复杂的非线性特点。为了实现航站楼短时客流量的准确预测,在传统K近邻（KNN）算法基础上增加了航班计划状态模式匹配方法,以航班计划包含的多维属性作为特征选取相似历史运营日作为预测基准向量,建立基于航站楼短时客流量预测的双层K近邻模型。通过实例分析,与ARIMA模型和传统K近邻模型等进行比较,证明双层K近邻模型预测误差更小,精度更高,模型拟合度相对传统K近邻模型提高了8%~10%,为航站楼短时客流量精确预测提供了一种新的解决思路。      

未来太空气象预报系统一瞥

文章从几个方面对太空气象预报系统进行了简单的介绍,包括:当前太空气象预报系统的水平;模板预报方案实施细则;实施模板方案的难度与可行性。作者关心我国对太空气象预报系统的研究,为进一步降低航天器发射风险、提高航天器运行可靠性而献计献策。     

民航维修安全质量综合评估与预测

提出了建立量化的民航维修安全质量综合评估系统并对关键性指标的变化趋势进行预测分析的新设想,为民航维修安全管理提供科学的方法和手段,也为航空安全管理系统(SMS)的实施垫定了基础。从安全状况、质量状况、维修能力和维修经济性四个方面,利用模糊数学进行综合评估,形成反映民航维修总体状况的安全质量指数(SQI);同时利用灰色理论中的GM(1,1)模型和时间序列分析模型对未来的趋势进行预测。评估和预测分析的结果为管理者提供准确的决策依据,及时发现不良趋势并采取相应的预防措施,确保航空安全。     

基于马尔科夫链模型的脉动装配线运行状态预测

分析了影响脉动生产线运行的因素和状态预测的必要性,提出了基于马尔科夫链模型的状态预测方法。基于马尔科夫链预测理论,对脉动生产线运行状态划分,确定状态转移矩阵,建立马尔科夫预测模型,并对模型准确性进行验证。     

多语言混合编程的民用飞机航材预测与配置平台

合理采购并在多个航站之间合理配置航材数量对于民用飞机的经济运行十分重要,而航材预测与配置研究形成的理论算法内容相对复杂。为推动这些算法程序能够有效投入工程应用,基于 Java 语言,并整合Matlab、Python 语言编写的算法程序,开发多语言混合编程的民用飞机航材预测与配置平台。首先,介绍平台中集成的航材预测与配置的支持向量机算法和边际分析算法,并叙述混合编程的实现方式;然后,阐述平台设计的详细内容,并对混合编程的实现方式及不同程序语言间参数类型的转换方法进行说明;最后,运用实际工程数据对平台的功能进行使用测试。结果表明：平台的人机界面友好、操作简便,较好地实现了航材预测与航材配置功能,能够为相关理论算法通过平台技术满足工程需要提供借鉴和思路。