求解具有多层试验数据成败型单元混联系统可靠性近似限的信息论方法

研究了求解具有多层成败型试验数据时,系统可靠性置信下限近似解的信息论方法,给出了各层试验数据综合的方法和步骤,推导了各层数据信息论方法折合及综合的计算公式。根据单元试验信息提供的信息量与系统折合试验应提供的信息量相等的原则,将多层试验数据逐级折合为系统的等效成败型数据,导出了等效成败型数据信息论方法折合的基本公式;结合可靠性工程的基本原理,根据单个成败型单元可靠性评定的经典精确置信限方法,给出了系统可靠性置信下限的近似解。并以实例形式说明了该方法的具体应用。     

系统可靠性评定的熵（法）近似限

将近代Ｓｈａｎｎｏｎ信息论的信息概念广义化,利用信息量的“可加性”特性和离散变量熵的一般表达式,并与可靠性工程理论相结合,推导了由成败型或指数型单元所组成的串、并联系统可靠性评定用的熵（法）近似下限计算公式。应用本文公式所得出的评定结果总是介于经典和贝叶斯（法）近似下限之间,既不偏于保守,又不过分冒进,相当令人满意     

雷达信号误差对舰载机全自动着舰控制的影响

基于常规舰载机使用的全自动着舰系统(ACLS),以及现役的作为主要导引方式的雷达导引着舰,分析了雷达导引过程中的信号误差对着舰的影响。从全自动着舰系统的组成和作用出发,建立完整的着舰仿真系统与环境,加入雷达信号测量数值、时间延迟和噪声杂波干扰3种不同类型的误差,以仿真误差存在时的着舰状况。通过计算着舰成功率,及其随误差量值的绝对值增大而减小的特点,验证了结果的正确性。该方法定量分析雷达信号误差的影响,既有助于着舰理论的研究,也对工程设计和应用具有指导意义。     

网络书店经营成功策略分析——以当当网为个案

以国内著名网络书店——当当网络书店为个案,在分析其企业经营理念、运营模式的基础上,对其进行内外部条件的SWOT分析。基于个案及文献分析,讨论了网络书店经营成功所应采取的主要策略,包括:提高用户忠诚度、广结网络联盟、保障交易安全、快速送货、完善数据库、优化客户服务质量,等等。     

提高GPS单频相位模糊度解算成功率的新方法

相位模糊度的成功解算是应用单频接收机进行高精度快速定位的关键。为了提高整周模糊度解算成功率,本文提出了一种新的算法,包括两项措施：(1)针对仅由几个历元组成的双差法方程系数阵存在着较严重病态性的结构特性,合理设计正则化矩阵,并在此基础上运用截断奇异值法求解模糊度实数解,使模糊度实数解更稳定和可靠,接近真实值;(2)在用最小二乘降相关平差(Least—squares ambiguity decorrrelation adiustment,LAMB—DA)方法进行模糊度搜索时,在Ratio检验的基础上,应用2个分析和比较的准则,对输出的多组候选整数模糊度向量进行分析和比较,甄别出正确的整数模糊度向量。算例表明,新方法不但缩短了模糊度解算所需要的观测时间,提高了模糊度实数解的可靠性和精度,而且显著地提高了整周模糊度解算的成功率。本文为单频接收机在高精度快速动态定位甚至实时定位等方面的广泛应用,提供了新的研究思路。     

对逆境的哲学反思

顺境为人生所期,但顺境只有在逆境的背景衬托下才是真实的,因而逆境就成为顺境不可或缺的辩证掣肘因素。然而,在对待逆境问题上有两种大相径庭的态度:悲观主义和盲目乐观自欺。保持逆境理性的革命乐观主义精神,审时度势,善驾逆境,就能获得成功。     

系统化软件复用的成功因素

本文根据国外一些著名软件企业在软件复用方面的实践经验,介绍了系统化软件复用方法，并对软件复用的成功因素进行了分析和评述。     

Practical guidelines for electro-dynamic tethers to survive from orbital debris impacts

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has proposed an active debris removal using electro-dynamic tether to reduce large space debris in the low-Earth orbit. However, a tether strand is thin but long enough to have a large area so that it is vulnerable to small particles. This vulnerability might be the weakest point of a tether system against orbital debris. In order to overcome this weakest point, a double tether system, in which two tether strands are tied together at even intervals to form equally spaced loops, has been suggested as one of the promising candidates. This paper provides a mathematical approach to estimate the survival probability of a double tether system and then apply the approach to evaluate the mission success rate of the active debris removal using electro-dynamic tether that JAXA has proposed. It can be concluded the countermeasure to get enough success rate can be obtained. The result is simulated for Advanced Earth Observing Satellite II (ADEOS-II) re-entry from 800 km sun synchronized orbit to atmosphere. The simulation shows that mission success rate over 90% can be obtained with number of loops over 1000 and 10 mm clearance between two strands.     

基于作战单元任务成功性的可修复备件优化

在分析作战单元任务及备件保障流程的基础上,在考虑装备系统冷备份和热备份的情况下,基于METRIC模型原理,建立了两级保障体制下的作战单元任务成功性评估模型.以备件购置费用为优化目标函数,作战单元任务成功概率为约束条件,运用边际方法给出了备件优化模型的求解方法.最后,通过实例对该方法进行了分析,优化结果符合作战单元备件配置实际情况,从而为部队装备保障指挥人员在作战单元执行任务前科学制定保障方案提供决策支持.     

Gaussian fitting based optimal design of aircraft mission success space using multi-objective genetic algorithm

In order to obtain the optimized aircraft design concept which meets the increasingly complex operation environment at the conceptual design stage, System-of-systems (SoS) engineering must be considered. This paper proposes a novel optimization method for the design of aircraft Mission Success Space (MSS) based on Gaussian fitting and Genetic Algorithm (GA) in the SoS area. First, the concepts in the design and evaluation of MSS are summarized to introduce the Contribution to System-of-Systems (CSS) by using a conventional effectiveness index, Mission Success Rate (MSR). Then, the mathematic modelling of Gaussian fitting technique is noted as the basis of the optimization work. After that, the proposed optimal MSS design is illustrated by the multi-objective optimization process where GA acts as the search tool to find the best solution (via Pareto front). In the case study, a simulation system of penetration mission was built. The simulation results are collected and then processed by two MSS design schemes (contour and neural network) giving the initial variable space to GA optimization. Based on that, the proposed optimization method is implemented under both schemes whose optimal solutions are compared to obtain the final best design in the case study.