Assessment of the close approach frequency and collision probability for satellites in different configurations of large constellations

The Earth orbital environment is drastically changing due to an intensification of the space activities. In particular, several projects of large constellations, proposed for the next years for communications purpose like global internet access, Internet of Things, or for Earth observations, will lead to the deployment of several thousands of new satellites at an unprecedented rate. It is a crucial challenge for space traffic management, which will deal with a great number of satellite conjunctions, potentially causing a collision with damaging consequences for the constellation itself and the space environment sustainability.In this paper, we investigate the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability for each referenced constellation. For this purpose, we compute the orbital evolution of satellites in different constellations during the lifecycle, from the deployment to the decommissioning, and we apply the CUBE algorithm and the Foster method to assess the collision probability with the background space debris population assuming a constant uncertainty in position. We show the variation of risk defined by the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability as a function of the proposed configuration. In particular, satellites of the Iridium and Kuiper constellation, but also satellite of the Telesat constellation on polar orbits are the most exposed at a collision. Moreover, the decommissioning phase contribute for a major part to the final cumulative collision probability.     

Deorbiter CubeSat mission design

This paper presents the mission design for a CubeSat-based active debris removal approach intended for transferring sizable debris objects from low-Earth orbit to a deorbit altitude of 100 km. The mission consists of a mothership spacecraft that carries and deploys several debris-removing nanosatellites, called Deorbiter CubeSats. Each Deorbiter is designed based on the utilization of an eight-unit CubeSat form factor and commercially-available components with significant flight heritage. The mothership spacecraft delivers Deorbiter CubeSats to the vicinity of a predetermined target debris, through performing a long-range rendezvous maneuver. Through a formation flying maneuver, the mothership then performs in-situ measurements of debris shape and orbital state. Upon release from the mothership, each Deorbiter CubeSat proceeds to performing a rendezvous and attachment maneuver with a debris object. Once attached to the debris, the CubeSat performs a detumbling maneuver, by which the residual angular momentum of the CubeSat-debris system is dumped using Deorbiter’s onboard reaction wheels. After stabilizing the attitude motion of the combined Deorbiter-debris system, the CubeSat proceeds to performing a deorbiting maneuver, i.e., reducing system’s altitude so much so that the bodies disintegrate and burn up due to atmospheric drag, typically at around 100 km above the Earth surface. The attitude and orbital maneuvers that are planned for the mission are described, both for the mothership and Deorbiter CubeSat. The performance of each spacecraft during their operations is investigated, using the actual performance specifications of the onboard components. The viability of the proposed debris removal approach is discussed in light of the results.     

Aiming at a 1-cm Orbit for Low Earth Orbiters: Reduced-Dynamic and Kinematic Precise Orbit Determination

The computation of high-accuracy orbits is a prerequisite for the success of Low Earth Orbiter (LEO) missions such as CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE. The mission objectives of these satellites cannot be reached without computing orbits with an accuracy at the few cm level. Such a level of accuracy might be achieved with the techniques of reduced-dynamic and kinematic precise orbit determination (POD) assuming continuous Satellite-to-Satellite Tracking (SST) by the Global Positioning System (GPS). Both techniques have reached a high level of maturity and have been successfully applied to missions in the past, for example to TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P), leading to (sub-)decimeter orbit accuracy. New LEO gravity missions are (to be) equipped with advanced GPS receivers promising to provide very high quality SST observations thereby opening the possibility for computing cm-level accuracy orbits. The computation of orbits at this accuracy level does not only require high-quality GPS receivers, but also advanced and demanding observation preprocessing and correction algorithms. Moreover, sophisticated parameter estimation schemes need to be adapted and extended to allow the computation of such orbits. Finally, reliable methods need to be employed for assessing the orbit quality and providing feedback to the different processing steps in the orbit computation process. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modelling of Ejecta as a Space Debris Source

When a micro-debris or a micrometeoroid impacts a spacecraft surface, a large number of secondary particles, called ejecta, are produced. These particles can contribute to a modification of the debris environment: either locally by the occurrence of secondary impacts on the components of complex and large space structures, or at great distance by the formation of a population of small orbital debris. This paper describes firstly, the ejecta overall production, and secondly, the lifetime and the orbital evolution of the particles. Finally the repartition of ejecta in LEO is computed. Some results describing the population as a function of size and altitude are presented.     

低空突防任务下综合飞行/推进系统的建模与仿真

建立了综合飞行／推进系统的数学模型，介绍了飞机全维非线性数学模型和涡轮风扇发动机非线性部件级数学模型的建模及综合方法。对飞机执行地形中随任务时，飞行员调节飞行速度的方法与基于总能量的调节飞行速度的方法进行了比较。结果表明，基于总能量的方法比飞行员直接控制飞行速度能够减小发动机的燃油消耗，降低发动机的磨损，进而可以增加飞机的航程，延长发动机的使用寿命。     

Modelling of Spall in an Anisotropic Aluminium Alloy

Spall caused by hypervelocity impacts at the lower range of velocities could result in significant damage to spacecraft. A number of polycrystalline alloys, used in spacecraft manufacturing, exhibit a pronounced anisotropy in their mechanical properties. The aluminium alloy AA 7010, whose orthotropy is a consequence of the meso-scale phase distribution or grain morphology, has been chosen for this investigation. The material failure observed in plate impact was simulated using a number of spall models. The Hugoniot elastic limit and spall strength have been studied as a function of orientation, and compared to experimental results.     

基于因子模糊化BP神经网络的磨损颗粒识别

在引入了一套磨粒形态学描述子来提取磨损颗粒的显微形态特征的基础上 ,采用人工神经网络技术 ,编制了用于磨损颗粒自动识别的 BP网络计算机模拟程序。在网络训练的过程中应用了本文引入的因子模糊化训练方法 ,使训练速度大大加快 ,以异或问题为例 ,速度可提高 5～ 1 0倍。应用此网络对磨粒测试库进行识别实验 ,识别正确率在 90 %以上 ,并且识别速度很快 ,大大优于传统的磨粒识别方法。     

数字地形数据的二维三次卷积插值

由于数字地形数据库是以网格的形式给出网格点上的地形高度信息，在低空突防轨迹优化过程中，往往需要非网格蹼地形的高度信息和地形曲面的导数，这些都是离散的地形数据库所无法提供的。对二维的地形数据进行插值是解决问题的有效手段。本文提出一种二维离散数据的插值方法－－二维三次卷积插值。该插值函数是地形曲面的三次逼近，具有连续的三阶导数，可以非常好地满足低空突防轨迹优化的需要。仿真结果表明，它具有比双线性插值和     

Collision Risk Mitigation in Geostationary Orbit

The short- and long-term effects of spacecraft explosions, as a function of the end-of-life re-orbit altitude above the geostationary orbit (GEO), were analyzed in terms of their additional contribution to the debris flux in the GEO ring. The simulated debris clouds were propagated for 72yrs, taking into account all the relevant orbital perturbations.The results obtained show that 6–7 additional explosions in GEO would be sufficient, in the long term, to double the current collision risk with sizable objects in GEO. Unfortunately, even if spacecraft were to re-orbit between 300 and 500km above GEO, this would not significantly improve the situation. In fact, an altitude increase of at least 2000km would have to be adopted to reduce by one order of magnitude the long-term risk of collision among geostationary satellites and explosion fragments. The optimal debris mitigation strategy should be a compromise between the reliability and effectiveness of spacecraft end-of-life passivation, the re-orbit altitude and the acceptable debris background in the GEO ring. However, for as long as the re-orbit altitudes currently used are less than 500km above GEO, new spacecraft explosions must be avoided in order to preserve the geostationary environment over the long term.     

星光折射航天器自主定轨方案比较

当星光透射大气发生折射时 ,用星光折射角精确地反映星光在大气中离地球表面的高度 ,并建立高度、航天器与地球的几何关系。通过对折射角进行观测 ,间接测得地平 ,从而改善了用地平仪直接测地平所造成的航天器自主导航精度低的不足。本文提出了几种利用星光折射的航天器自主定轨方案 ,并作了细致的仿真实验 ,对直接和间接两种测量地平方法以及几种星光折射自主定轨方案进行了分析比较。