Assessment of the close approach frequency and collision probability for satellites in different configurations of large constellations

The Earth orbital environment is drastically changing due to an intensification of the space activities. In particular, several projects of large constellations, proposed for the next years for communications purpose like global internet access, Internet of Things, or for Earth observations, will lead to the deployment of several thousands of new satellites at an unprecedented rate. It is a crucial challenge for space traffic management, which will deal with a great number of satellite conjunctions, potentially causing a collision with damaging consequences for the constellation itself and the space environment sustainability.In this paper, we investigate the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability for each referenced constellation. For this purpose, we compute the orbital evolution of satellites in different constellations during the lifecycle, from the deployment to the decommissioning, and we apply the CUBE algorithm and the Foster method to assess the collision probability with the background space debris population assuming a constant uncertainty in position. We show the variation of risk defined by the close approach frequency and the cumulative collision probability as a function of the proposed configuration. In particular, satellites of the Iridium and Kuiper constellation, but also satellite of the Telesat constellation on polar orbits are the most exposed at a collision. Moreover, the decommissioning phase contribute for a major part to the final cumulative collision probability.     

Fully distributed time-varying formation tracking control for multiple quadrotor vehicles via finite-time convergent extended state observer

This paper investigates a time-varying anti-disturbance formation problem for a group of quadrotor aircrafts with time-varying uncertainties and a directed interaction topology. A novel Finite-Time Convergent Extended State Observer (FTCESO) based fully-distributed formation control scheme is proposed to enhance the disturbance rejection and the formation tracking performances for networked quadrotors. By adopting the hierarchical control strategy, the multi-quadrotor system is separated into two subsystems: the outer-loop cooperative subsystem and the inner-loop attitude subsystem. In the outer-loop subsystem, with the estimation of disturbing forces and uncertain dynamics from FTCESOs, an adaptive consensus theory based cooperative controller is exploited to ensure the multiple quadrotors form and maintain a time-varying pattern relying only on the positions of the neighboring aircrafts. In the inner-loop subsystem, the desired attitude generated by the cooperative control law is stably tracked under a FTCESO-based attitude controller in a finite time. Based on a detailed algorithm to specify the cooperative control protocol, the feasibility condition to achieve the time-varying anti-disturbance formation tracking is derived and the rigorous analysis of the whole closed-loop multi-quadrotor system is given. Some numerical examples are conducted to intuitively demonstrate the effectiveness and the improvements of the proposed control framework.     

Fault mode probability factor based fault-tolerant control for dissimilar redundant actuation system

This paper presents a Fault Mode Probability Factor (FMPF) based Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC) strategy for multiple faults of Dissimilar Redundant Actuation System (DRAS) composed of Hydraulic Actuator (HA) and Electro-Hydrostatic Actuator (EHA). The long-term service and severe working conditions can result in multiple gradual faults which can ultimately degrade the system performance, resulting in the system model drift into the fault state characterized with parameter uncertainty. The paper proposes to address this problem by using the historical statistics of the multiple gradual faults and the proposed FMPF to amend the system model with parameter uncertainty. To balance the system model precision and computation time, a Moving Window (MW) method is used to determine the applied historical statistics. The FMPF based FTC strategy is developed for the amended system model where the system estimation and Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) are updated at the end of system sampling period. The simulations of DRAS system subjected to multiple faults have been performed and the results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

一种卫星间跟瞄方向的控制策略与实现

进行自由空间的光通信或空间对抗，需要在卫星间实现精确的跟踪与瞄准。因为地面测控站的设置非常有限，指令与数据注入的范围受到很多限制，所以要求这种跟瞄在很多时候是无主控制状态下完成的。提出了一种利用在地面测控站的范围内向星上数管中心注入目标卫星、本体卫星的轨道参数，其它时间依靠自主导航飞行和GPS修正的方法，结合本体星的姿态测量、振动测量实现卫星瞄准指向的方位角与俯仰角的精确控制的方法，提高了在地面站无法注入指令与数据时卫星的捕获概率。通过仿真，将计算结果与卫星仿真工具软件STK的数据进行比较，结果一致。最后在嵌入式DSP平台上实现了这一策略。     

INITIALIZATION METHODS FOR GROUP TRACKING

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平直地面对一类圆极化波的等效反射系数

本文研究了入射波电场为任意线极化时,平直地面反射波中左旋圆极化分量和右旋圆极化分量的数学描述,引入了地面对这类波的等效反射系数的概念,并给予了物理解释,讨论了应用的有关问题。     

掠海飞行导弹击水概率的仿真研究

本文对掠海导弹的击水概率问题进行了研究,提出了用均匀设计、Monte—Carlo法和逐步回归法建立击水概率预报公式的仿真方法,并结合某型号的反舰导弹进行计算,得到了满意的结果。本文还利用表观频率和表观频谱的概念,建立起飞航导弹的背景干扰——海浪和阵风的数学模型,并用波叠加法进行了数字仿真。     

基于损伤力学的概率疲劳曲线获取方法

文章基于损伤力学方法获得满足疲劳试验的损伤演化方程,推导出一般条件下的理论疲劳曲线以及相对应的理论中值疲劳曲线与理论理想疲劳曲线；然后根据试验数据即可确定理论疲劳曲线中的参量,从而获取疲劳曲线计算公式。通过此计算公式,可以方便地得到一组以初始损伤为参数的疲劳曲线族,继而得到以失效概率为参数的疲劳曲线族,大大降低了所需试验的数量,并为结构抗疲劳设计和寿命估算提供了依据。     

基于信息流电路可测试性的度量

准确地度量电路的可测试性是数字系统测试的重要问题之一。本文提出了一种基于信息流度量电路可测试性的方法,它表明可以将一个数字电路看成是一个信息处理系统。因此,电路的可测试性的度量值定义为电路输出的平均信息量与输入的平均信息量的最大值之比。文中给出了如何应用逻辑模拟软件来计算电路可测试性的度量值。对于由模块组成的电路,可以通过模块之间的一些特殊操作求得整个电路可测试性的度量值,本文也给出了方法及实例。文中还给出了应用本文提出的方法进行电路可测试性度量的实例,并与文[1,5]的方法得到的结果进行了比较,从而说明了本文方法的特点。     

适用于含多个隐式极限状态方程的飞机结构系统安全分析新方法

工程复杂随机结构的概率安全分析中，最重要的两个步骤是建立所有失效模式的极限状态方程和计算所建立极限状态方程的失效概率。一般来说大型复杂工程结构的极限状态方程都是隐式的，且当材料参数、结构参数和外载荷等均为随机变量时，极限状态方程均为非线性的，为此文中提出了建立真实复杂结构多模式隐式极限方程的等效方法。该方法对于单个极限状态方程采用在均值点展开成线性项和高次项修正的方式，在概率等效的基础上，建立起原非线性隐式极限状态方程的概率等效线性显式极限状态方程。当结构系统所有极限状态方程都建立了其等效显式线性极限状态方程后，即可利用可得的可靠性分析方法来计算结构系统的等效失效概率。所提方法被用于真实飞机结构翼身连接接头的强度刚度多模式可靠性分析，与迭代响应面法计算结果的对比表明，所提方法具有较高的精度。并且所提方法可以与任何标准有限元程序相结合，而标准有限元程序是当今处理结构力学分析与设计的强有力的工具，文中方法提供了力学分析与概率安全分析相结合的合理连接，其应用前景将是十分广泛的。