掠海飞行导弹击水概率的仿真研究

本文对掠海导弹的击水概率问题进行了研究,提出了用均匀设计、Monte—Carlo法和逐步回归法建立击水概率预报公式的仿真方法,并结合某型号的反舰导弹进行计算,得到了满意的结果。本文还利用表观频率和表观频谱的概念,建立起飞航导弹的背景干扰——海浪和阵风的数学模型,并用波叠加法进行了数字仿真。     

疲劳裂纹扩展速率试验数据的可靠性分析模型

以指定ΔＫ下的ｄａ／ｄＮ服从对数正态分布为基础，提出３种ｄａ／ｄＮ试验数据统计处理方法；依据一组４０ＣｒＮｉＭｏ材料的ＣＴ试样的试验数据处理结果，对３方法进行了分析对比。     

用于导弹系统性能统计分析的统计线性化伴随法

本文在研究ＳＬＡＭ方法基础上，进行了理论推导和计算方法方面的改进，并将此方法应用于导弹系统性能的统计分析，计算机仿真结果表明该方法与采用ＣＡＤＥＴ方法的结果完全一致。     

Online scheduling of distributed Earth observation satellite system under rigid communication constraints

This paper focused on online scheduling of distributed Earth observation satellite system in a dynamic environment. The objective was to maximize the total profit of the overall system by efficiently coordinating the different satellites with stochastic arrival of urgent tasks, subject to rigid communication and observation time window constraints. We formulated this problem as a single-task, single-robot, time-extended assignment problem with intra-schedule dependency using the multi-robot task assignment taxonomy and formulated the sub-problem after releasing urgent tasks in a mixed-integer linear programming model. We first described the online scheduling algorithm for a single satellite, then we proposed the modified consensus-based bundle algorithm (m-CBBA) and modified asynchronous consensus-based bundle algorithm (m-ACBBA) with synchronous and asynchronous communication, respectively. Compared with initial versions of CBBA and ACBBA, the modified versions added the communication loop prediction phases to efficiently utilize scarce communication opportunities and reduce the communication requirements. Additionally, we introduce two contract net protocol (CNP)-based algorithms for comparison, respectively SingleItem-CNP-based (SI-CNP) algorithm and Batch-CNP-based (BA-CNP) algorithm. Computational experiments indicated that both the total profit and percentage of scheduled urgent tasks achieved by the m-ACBBA and m-CBBA algorithms were much higher than those achieved by both SI-CNP and BA-CNP. Additionally, the number of communications needed by either m-ACBBA or m-CBBA algorithm was lower than that by SI-CNP. When the communication cost in the system is high, the m-CBBA algorithm is preferred because it balances the profit and the required number of communications. When the communication cost is low, the m-ACBBA algorithm is preferred because it achieves high total profit and high percentage of scheduled urgent tasks.     

Modelling and observing Jovian electron propagation times in the inner heliosphere

The propagation of Jovian electrons in interplanetary space was modelled by solving the relevant transport equation numerically through the use of stochastic differential equations. This approach allows us to calculate, for the first time, the propagation time of Jovian electrons from the Jovian magnetosphere to Earth. Using observed quiet-time increases of electron intensities at Earth, we also derive values for this quantity. Comparing the modelled and observed propagation times we can gauge the magnitude of the transport parameters sufficiently to place a limit on the 6 MeV Jovian electron flux reaching Earth. We also investigate how the modelled propagation time, and corresponding Jovian electron flux, varies with the well-known ∼13 month periodicity in the magnetic connectivity of Earth and Jupiter. The results show that the Jovian electron intensity varies by a factor of ∼10 during this cycle of magnetic connectivity.     

随机疲劳裂纹扩展及动态可靠性分析

在确定性袭纹扩展模型的基础上，建立了疲劳裂纹扩展的随机模型。考虑裂纹扩展引起的强度衰减，建立了实用的动态可靠性分析模型。     

基于随机粒子追踪方法的环形燃烧室点火动态模拟

为了深入研究低排放燃烧室点火联焰规律,在全新的环形模型燃烧室中开展了点火模拟和试验研究。点火模拟采用随机粒子追踪方法,能够基于时均冷态流场的仿真结果快速模拟火焰传播过程。环形燃烧室包含16个中心分级旋流器,仅向预燃级通入丙烷,用于模拟航空发动机低排放燃烧室点火状态下的空气燃油分级。试验采用PIV技术测量3个头部区域流场,利用高速相机拍摄火焰CH*/C2*基团化学发光信号。对多个流量和当量比条件下的联焰过程、联焰时间和传焰速率进行了分析,试验和模拟的结果均表明：环形燃烧室内火焰双向传播,燃烧室内外环流速度差异导致了双向火焰传播速度差,传焰速率随燃烧室湍流速度和当量比的增加而增加。点火模型很好地捕捉了环形燃烧室点火动态,所得传焰速率也符合湍流火焰传播规律,表明该模型具有较强预测能力。     

Stochastic modelling considering ionospheric scintillation effects on GNSS relative and point positioning

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), in particular the Global Positioning System (GPS), have been widely used for high accuracy geodetic positioning. The Least Squares functional models related to the GNSS observables have been more extensively studied than the corresponding stochastic models, given that the development of the latter is significantly more complex. As a result, a simplified stochastic model is often used in GNSS positioning, which assumes that all the GNSS observables are statistically independent and of the same quality, i.e. a similar variance is assigned indiscriminately to all of the measurements. However, the definition of the stochastic model may be approached from a more detailed perspective, considering specific effects affecting each observable individually, as for example the effects of ionospheric scintillation. These effects relate to phase and amplitude fluctuations in the satellites signals that occur due to diffraction on electron density irregularities in the ionosphere and are particularly relevant at equatorial and high latitude regions, especially during periods of high solar activity. As a consequence, degraded measurement quality and poorer positioning accuracy may result.     

Distributed state estimation for heterogeneous mobile sensor networks with stochastic observation loss

The problem of distributed fusion and random observation loss for mobile sensor networks is investigated herein. In view of the fact that the measured values, sampling frequency and noise of various sensors are different, the observation model of a heterogeneous network is constructed. A binary random variable is introduced to describe the drop of observation component and the topology switching problem caused by complete observation loss is also considered. A cubature information filtering algo...     

多随机变量的桁架结构系统的可靠性分析及优化设计

针对桁架结构系统，采用随机有限元法（SFEM）计算结构系统的响应量，考虑内力重新分配，建立失效模式的安全余量方程，用验算点法计算失效模式安全余量的可靠性指标，用改进的分枝限界法，寻找主要失效模式，通过对主要失效模式方程线性化研究，计算失效模式安全余量之间的相关系数，寻找主要失效模式，通过对主要失效模式方程线性化研究，计算失效模式安全余量之间的相关系数，最后用PNET法计算出结构系统的失效概率，同时给出多随机变量的结构系统可靠度的敏度表达式，采用最佳矢量法，求解了大型桁架结构系统基于可靠性指标约束下的最小重量的优化设计问题，最后，给出了实际算例，计算结果表明；采用随机有限元法能更好地考虑结构系统的多个随机变量对系统可靠性产生的影响；所采用的可靠性分析方法和优化方法是有效的。