The Climate Response to the Astronomical Forcing

Links between climate and Earth’s orbit have been proposed for about 160 years. Two decisive advances towards an astronomical theory of palæoclimates were Milankovitch’s theory of insolation (1941) and independent findings, in 1976, of a double precession frequency peak in marine sediment data and from celestial mechanics calculations. The present chapter reviews three essential elements of any astronomical theory of climate: (1) to calculate the orbital elements, (2) to infer insolation changes from climatic precession, obliquity and eccentricity, and (3) to estimate the impact of these variations on climate. The Louvain-la-Neuve climate-ice sheet model has been an important instrument for confirming the relevance of Milankovitch’s theory, but it also evidences the critical role played by greenhouse gases during periods of low eccentricity. It is recognised today that climatic interactions at the global scale were involved in the processes of glacial inception and deglaciation. Three examples are given, related to the responses of the carbon cycle, hydrological cycle, and the terrestrial biosphere, respectively. The chapter concludes on an outlook on future research directions on this topic.     

行星三体引力摄动对卫星探测器大气制动的影响

考虑行星引力在其卫星探测器大气制动过程中的显著摄动,建立了基于Milankovitch参数的平均轨道动力学模型并对土卫六探测器进行仿真。首先,将轨道参数转换为无奇异的Milankovitch参数,考虑探测卫星的大气阻力、扁率摄动以及行星引力摄动,建立了半解析轨道方程。其次,以土卫六探测器为对象,选择不同的土星初始方位角进行有大气和无大气情况下的数值仿真,并进行比较分析。结果表明,土星初始方位角的选择会引起土卫六大气制动轨道偏心率和近拱点高度在不同范围内震荡,极大地影响大气制动效果。      

How the astronomical aspects of climate science were settled? On the Milankovitch and Bacsák anniversaries,with lessons for today

It was 100 years ago (on August 7, 1920), that the comprehensive mathematical foundations of climate change research, written by a Serbian researcher, Milutin Milankovitch, were published. A later interpreter and developer of his results, Georg (in Hungarian: György) Bacsák (Pozsony/Pressburg/Bratislava, June 5, 1870 - Fonyód, March 4, 1970) was born 150 years ago and died at the age of one hundred, half a century ago. In this commemorative paper we look back to special circumstances in revealing the secrets of ice ages that had puzzled scientists for at least several centuries. Recently, after 100 years, the Milankovitch theory, including related short-term forcings (ranging from interannual, multidecadal to millennial timescales) has not only been confirmed, but its climate forcing mechanism has also been identified and proposed. Owing to the uniqueness of the problem, the science of the orbital forcing of climate change can be proclaimed to be essentially settled.